Arizona Proposition 318, a legislative referral approved by Republican majorities in the state House and Senate earlier in 2026, qualifies for the November general election ballot and would codify sex-based eligibility rules for K-12 sports teams, locker rooms, restrooms, and related athletic facilities based on biological sex at birth. The measure extends Arizona’s prior statutory restrictions—previously blocked by federal courts—while applying them to private schools and non-school sports organizations, with private rights of action for enforcement. Recent August reporting highlights organized opposition from LGBTQ advocacy groups preparing a challenging campaign, yet the absence of a broad counter-effort and the state’s Republican legislative control contribute to the 66.5% implied probability traders assign to passage. The November timeline and comparable measures in other states remain key variables for outcome assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated57% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
57% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona Proposition 318, a legislative referral approved by Republican majorities in the state House and Senate earlier in 2026, qualifies for the November general election ballot and would codify sex-based eligibility rules for K-12 sports teams, locker rooms, restrooms, and related athletic facilities based on biological sex at birth. The measure extends Arizona’s prior statutory restrictions—previously blocked by federal courts—while applying them to private schools and non-school sports organizations, with private rights of action for enforcement. Recent August reporting highlights organized opposition from LGBTQ advocacy groups preparing a challenging campaign, yet the absence of a broad counter-effort and the state’s Republican legislative control contribute to the 66.5% implied probability traders assign to passage. The November timeline and comparable measures in other states remain key variables for outcome assessment.
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$145End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona Proposition 318, a legislative referral approved by Republican majorities in the state House and Senate earlier in 2026, qualifies for the November general election ballot and would codify sex-based eligibility rules for K-12 sports teams, locker rooms, restrooms, and related athletic facilities based on biological sex at birth. The measure extends Arizona’s prior statutory restrictions—previously blocked by federal courts—while applying them to private schools and non-school sports organizations, with private rights of action for enforcement. Recent August reporting highlights organized opposition from LGBTQ advocacy groups preparing a challenging campaign, yet the absence of a broad counter-effort and the state’s Republican legislative control contribute to the 66.5% implied probability traders assign to passage. The November timeline and comparable measures in other states remain key variables for outcome assessment.
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Volume
$145End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Arizona Proposition 318, a legislative referral approved by Republican majorities in the state House and Senate earlier in 2026, qualifies for the November general election ballot and would codify sex-based eligibility rules for K-12 sports teams, locker rooms, restrooms, and related athletic facilities based on biological sex at birth. The measure extends Arizona’s prior statutory restrictions—previously blocked by federal courts—while applying them to private schools and non-school sports organizations, with private rights of action for enforcement. Recent August reporting highlights organized opposition from LGBTQ advocacy groups preparing a challenging campaign, yet the absence of a broad counter-effort and the state’s Republican legislative control contribute to the 66.5% implied probability traders assign to passage. The November timeline and comparable measures in other states remain key variables for outcome assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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