Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes. A two-thirds Senate majority (54 votes) is required, and the current congressional alignment aligned with the Lula administration has consistently blocked advancement, with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre shelving petitions. Recent 2025–2026 congressional probes produced non-binding recommendations without triggering proceedings, while the court has moved to clarify standing rules that further raise procedural hurdles. Traders see these institutional and political barriers as durable through 2026. A decisive post-election Senate shift or unprecedented cross-party scandal could still open a narrow path to removal before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes. A two-thirds Senate majority (54 votes) is required, and the current congressional alignment aligned with the Lula administration has consistently blocked advancement, with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre shelving petitions. Recent 2025–2026 congressional probes produced non-binding recommendations without triggering proceedings, while the court has moved to clarify standing rules that further raise procedural hurdles. Traders see these institutional and political barriers as durable through 2026. A decisive post-election Senate shift or unprecedented cross-party scandal could still open a narrow path to removal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes. A two-thirds Senate majority (54 votes) is required, and the current congressional alignment aligned with the Lula administration has consistently blocked advancement, with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre shelving petitions. Recent 2025–2026 congressional probes produced non-binding recommendations without triggering proceedings, while the court has moved to clarify standing rules that further raise procedural hurdles. Traders see these institutional and political barriers as durable through 2026. A decisive post-election Senate shift or unprecedented cross-party scandal could still open a narrow path to removal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes. A two-thirds Senate majority (54 votes) is required, and the current congressional alignment aligned with the Lula administration has consistently blocked advancement, with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre shelving petitions. Recent 2025–2026 congressional probes produced non-binding recommendations without triggering proceedings, while the court has moved to clarify standing rules that further raise procedural hurdles. Traders see these institutional and political barriers as durable through 2026. A decisive post-election Senate shift or unprecedented cross-party scandal could still open a narrow path to removal before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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