The Alaska U.S. Senate top-four primary on August 18 features a tight contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, with multiple minor candidates also on the ballot. Recent polls, including Alaska Survey Research surveys from early August showing Peltola at roughly 48-49% and Sullivan at 46-48%, indicate a narrow race that aligns with trader emphasis on small margins in the 3-6% or sub-3% ranges. Peltola’s prior statewide success, strong name recognition, and positioning as the sole Democrat advancing help sustain her slight edge in aggregates, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency, Republican base support, and Alaska’s historical lean in federal races. The open primary’s structure, combined with ranked-choice voting in the general, amplifies focus on first-place vote shares and potential vote splitting among Republicans. With the contest days away and limited late shifts in public data, market pricing reflects high uncertainty around exact margins and the possibility of an unexpected top-two finish or wider gap driven by turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeltola 3–6% 30%
Peltola 6–9% 17%
Peltola <3% 14%
Sullivan <3% 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
3%
Peltola 12–15%
7%
Peltola 9–12%
7%
Peltola 6–9%
17%
Peltola 3–6%
30%
Peltola <3%
14%
Sullivan <3%
13%
Sullivan 3–6%
4%
Sullivan 6–9%
5%
Sullivan 9–12%
3%
Sullivan 12%+
3%
Peltola 3–6% 30%
Peltola 6–9% 17%
Peltola <3% 14%
Sullivan <3% 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
$195 Vol.
3%
Peltola 12–15%
$159 Vol.
7%
Peltola 9–12%
$159 Vol.
7%
Peltola 6–9%
$393 Vol.
17%
Peltola 3–6%
$951 Vol.
30%
Peltola <3%
$199 Vol.
14%
Sullivan <3%
$159 Vol.
13%
Sullivan 3–6%
$343 Vol.
4%
Sullivan 6–9%
$299 Vol.
5%
Sullivan 9–12%
$327 Vol.
3%
Sullivan 12%+
$332 Vol.
3%
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Alaska U.S. Senate top-four primary on August 18 features a tight contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, with multiple minor candidates also on the ballot. Recent polls, including Alaska Survey Research surveys from early August showing Peltola at roughly 48-49% and Sullivan at 46-48%, indicate a narrow race that aligns with trader emphasis on small margins in the 3-6% or sub-3% ranges. Peltola’s prior statewide success, strong name recognition, and positioning as the sole Democrat advancing help sustain her slight edge in aggregates, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency, Republican base support, and Alaska’s historical lean in federal races. The open primary’s structure, combined with ranked-choice voting in the general, amplifies focus on first-place vote shares and potential vote splitting among Republicans. With the contest days away and limited late shifts in public data, market pricing reflects high uncertainty around exact margins and the possibility of an unexpected top-two finish or wider gap driven by turnout dynamics.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,513End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Alaska U.S. Senate top-four primary on August 18 features a tight contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, with multiple minor candidates also on the ballot. Recent polls, including Alaska Survey Research surveys from early August showing Peltola at roughly 48-49% and Sullivan at 46-48%, indicate a narrow race that aligns with trader emphasis on small margins in the 3-6% or sub-3% ranges. Peltola’s prior statewide success, strong name recognition, and positioning as the sole Democrat advancing help sustain her slight edge in aggregates, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency, Republican base support, and Alaska’s historical lean in federal races. The open primary’s structure, combined with ranked-choice voting in the general, amplifies focus on first-place vote shares and potential vote splitting among Republicans. With the contest days away and limited late shifts in public data, market pricing reflects high uncertainty around exact margins and the possibility of an unexpected top-two finish or wider gap driven by turnout dynamics.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$3,513End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alaska U.S. Senate top-four primary on August 18 features a tight contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, with multiple minor candidates also on the ballot. Recent polls, including Alaska Survey Research surveys from early August showing Peltola at roughly 48-49% and Sullivan at 46-48%, indicate a narrow race that aligns with trader emphasis on small margins in the 3-6% or sub-3% ranges. Peltola’s prior statewide success, strong name recognition, and positioning as the sole Democrat advancing help sustain her slight edge in aggregates, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency, Republican base support, and Alaska’s historical lean in federal races. The open primary’s structure, combined with ranked-choice voting in the general, amplifies focus on first-place vote shares and potential vote splitting among Republicans. With the contest days away and limited late shifts in public data, market pricing reflects high uncertainty around exact margins and the possibility of an unexpected top-two finish or wider gap driven by turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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