The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, one month away, features confirmed lineups that position the United States as the top seed ahead of defending Open champions India, hosts Uzbekistan, China, and Germany. Home advantage bolsters Uzbekistan’s position on the Silk Road venue, while India fields its Budapest-winning core and the U.S. draws on depth across boards. With roughly 200 teams and an 11-round Swiss format, small rating edges and board-order matchups amplify variance, keeping implied probabilities clustered among the leading nations. Recent squad announcements have reinforced the depth of these rosters without major withdrawals, sustaining the tight trader consensus around the frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIndia 28%
Uzbekistan 24%
United States of America 22%
China 8%
India
28%
Uzbekistan
24%
United States of America
22%
China
8%
Armenia
5%
Azerbaijan
4%
Germany
4%
Georgia
4%
Spain
3%
Netherlands
3%
Poland
3%
Ukraine
3%
Hungary
3%
France
3%
England
3%
Serbia
2%
Bulgaria
2%
Vietnam
2%
Turkiye
2%
Norway
1%
Sweden
1%
Iran
1%
Turkmenistan
1%
Argentina
<1%
Austria
<1%
Brazil
<1%
Canada
<1%
Chile
<1%
Colombia
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Czech Republic
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Greece
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Latvia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Mexico
<1%
Romania
<1%
Slovenia
<1%
India 28%
Uzbekistan 24%
United States of America 22%
China 8%
India
28%
Uzbekistan
24%
United States of America
22%
China
8%
Armenia
5%
Azerbaijan
4%
Germany
4%
Georgia
4%
Spain
3%
Netherlands
3%
Poland
3%
Ukraine
3%
Hungary
3%
France
3%
England
3%
Serbia
2%
Bulgaria
2%
Vietnam
2%
Turkiye
2%
Norway
1%
Sweden
1%
Iran
1%
Turkmenistan
1%
Argentina
<1%
Austria
<1%
Brazil
<1%
Canada
<1%
Chile
<1%
Colombia
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Czech Republic
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Greece
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Latvia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Mexico
<1%
Romania
<1%
Slovenia
<1%
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 11:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, one month away, features confirmed lineups that position the United States as the top seed ahead of defending Open champions India, hosts Uzbekistan, China, and Germany. Home advantage bolsters Uzbekistan’s position on the Silk Road venue, while India fields its Budapest-winning core and the U.S. draws on depth across boards. With roughly 200 teams and an 11-round Swiss format, small rating edges and board-order matchups amplify variance, keeping implied probabilities clustered among the leading nations. Recent squad announcements have reinforced the depth of these rosters without major withdrawals, sustaining the tight trader consensus around the frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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