Democratic polling leads of 4–7 points on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with historical midterm patterns under a Republican president, position a modest Democratic popular vote edge as the central driver of current trader positioning. Recent surveys from sources including Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, and Nate Silver’s averages reflect this environment, reinforced by Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and low presidential approval near 43 percent. Mid-decade redistricting adjustments that could modestly benefit Republicans have not shifted the national outlook enough to alter the expected swing from the 2024 baseline. Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to Democratic margins clustered between 6 and 12 points while pricing “Other” highest to reflect uncertainty around the precise range or potential for narrower results closer to election day. No major late-cycle events have yet disrupted these dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,297 Vol.
$119,297 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
22%
Democrats 8-10%
27%
Democrats 6-8%
18%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
7%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
4%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,297 Vol.
$119,297 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,158 Vol.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$2,466 Vol.
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,106 Vol.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$7,995 Vol.
22%
Democrats 8-10%
$13,866 Vol.
27%
Democrats 6-8%
$13,877 Vol.
18%
Democrats 4-6%
$5,245 Vol.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$13,796 Vol.
7%
Democrats 0-2%
$13,479 Vol.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,143 Vol.
4%
Republicans 2-4%
$29,530 Vol.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$2,878 Vol.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,756 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic polling leads of 4–7 points on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with historical midterm patterns under a Republican president, position a modest Democratic popular vote edge as the central driver of current trader positioning. Recent surveys from sources including Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, and Nate Silver’s averages reflect this environment, reinforced by Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and low presidential approval near 43 percent. Mid-decade redistricting adjustments that could modestly benefit Republicans have not shifted the national outlook enough to alter the expected swing from the 2024 baseline. Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to Democratic margins clustered between 6 and 12 points while pricing “Other” highest to reflect uncertainty around the precise range or potential for narrower results closer to election day. No major late-cycle events have yet disrupted these dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$119,297End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic polling leads of 4–7 points on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with historical midterm patterns under a Republican president, position a modest Democratic popular vote edge as the central driver of current trader positioning. Recent surveys from sources including Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, and Nate Silver’s averages reflect this environment, reinforced by Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and low presidential approval near 43 percent. Mid-decade redistricting adjustments that could modestly benefit Republicans have not shifted the national outlook enough to alter the expected swing from the 2024 baseline. Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to Democratic margins clustered between 6 and 12 points while pricing “Other” highest to reflect uncertainty around the precise range or potential for narrower results closer to election day. No major late-cycle events have yet disrupted these dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$119,297End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democratic polling leads of 4–7 points on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with historical midterm patterns under a Republican president, position a modest Democratic popular vote edge as the central driver of current trader positioning. Recent surveys from sources including Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, and Nate Silver’s averages reflect this environment, reinforced by Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and low presidential approval near 43 percent. Mid-decade redistricting adjustments that could modestly benefit Republicans have not shifted the national outlook enough to alter the expected swing from the 2024 baseline. Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to Democratic margins clustered between 6 and 12 points while pricing “Other” highest to reflect uncertainty around the precise range or potential for narrower results closer to election day. No major late-cycle events have yet disrupted these dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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