Scottie Scheffler's commanding position as the 99.5% implied probability favorite to lead after two rounds at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship stems from his dominant early performance at TPC Southwind, where he sits at -11 through 36 holes after strong opening rounds that include a 61. The world No. 1 enters the FedEx Cup Playoffs with a massive points lead and has shown elite ball-striking and putting consistency in recent starts, creating a wide gap over the field. Many contenders sit several shots back, limiting realistic paths to overtake him by the end of round two. Late surges from players like Sungjae Im or Nico Echavarria remain possible in theory, yet Scheffler's form and current margin make significant leaderboard shifts unlikely absent an unusually low round from the pack or a rare collapse from the leader.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScottie Scheffler 100.0%
Michael Kim 1.0%
Kurt Kitayama 1.0%
Jacob Bridgeman 1.0%
$1,093 Vol.
$1,093 Vol.
Pierceson Coody
No
Nicolas Echavarria
No
Harris English
No
Steven Fisk
No
Alex Fitzpatrick
No
Matt Fitzpatrick
No
Tommy Fleetwood
No
Rickie Fowler
No
Ryan Fox
No
Ryan Gerard
No
Chris Gotterup
No
Aldrich Potgieter
No
Shane Lowry
No
Robert MacIntyre
No
Hideki Matsuyama
No
Ludvig Aberg
No
Aaron Rai
No
Kristoffer Reitan
No
Patrick Rodgers
No
Justin Rose
No
Xander Schauffele
No
Scottie Scheffler
Yes
Matthias Schmid
No
Adam Scott
No
Alex Smalley
No
Jordan L. Smith
No
J.J. Spaun
No
Jordan Spieth
No
Sam Stevens
No
Sepp Straka
No
Nick Taylor
No
Sahith Theegala
No
Justin Thomas
No
Michael Thorbjornsen
No
Gary Woodland
No
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
No
Cameron Young
No
Akshay Bhatia
No
Ben Griffin
No
Harry Hall
No
Brian Harman
No
Russell Henley
No
Ryo Hisatsune
No
Nicolai Hojgaard
No
Max Homa
No
Viktor Hovland
No
Sung-Jae Im
No
Michael Kim
No
Si Woo Kim
No
Tom Kim
No
Kurt Kitayama
No
Jake Knapp
No
Jackson Koivun
No
Min Woo Lee
No
Jacob Bridgeman
No
Sam Burns
No
Patrick Cantlay
No
Ricky Castillo
No
Bud Cauley
No
Wyndham Clark
No
Eric Cole
No
Corey Conners
No
Matt McCarty
No
Rory McIlroy
No
Maverick McNealy
No
Keith Mitchell
No
Collin Morikawa
No
Alexander Noren
No
JT Poston
No
Scottie Scheffler 100.0%
Michael Kim 1.0%
Kurt Kitayama 1.0%
Jacob Bridgeman 1.0%
$1,093 Vol.
$1,093 Vol.
Pierceson Coody
No
Nicolas Echavarria
No
Harris English
No
Steven Fisk
No
Alex Fitzpatrick
No
Matt Fitzpatrick
No
Tommy Fleetwood
No
Rickie Fowler
No
Ryan Fox
No
Ryan Gerard
No
Chris Gotterup
No
Aldrich Potgieter
No
Shane Lowry
No
Robert MacIntyre
No
Hideki Matsuyama
No
Ludvig Aberg
No
Aaron Rai
No
Kristoffer Reitan
No
Patrick Rodgers
No
Justin Rose
No
Xander Schauffele
No
Scottie Scheffler
Yes
Matthias Schmid
No
Adam Scott
No
Alex Smalley
No
Jordan L. Smith
No
J.J. Spaun
No
Jordan Spieth
No
Sam Stevens
No
Sepp Straka
No
Nick Taylor
No
Sahith Theegala
No
Justin Thomas
No
Michael Thorbjornsen
No
Gary Woodland
No
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
No
Cameron Young
No
Akshay Bhatia
No
Ben Griffin
No
Harry Hall
No
Brian Harman
No
Russell Henley
No
Ryo Hisatsune
No
Nicolai Hojgaard
No
Max Homa
No
Viktor Hovland
No
Sung-Jae Im
No
Michael Kim
No
Si Woo Kim
No
Tom Kim
No
Kurt Kitayama
No
Jake Knapp
No
Jackson Koivun
No
Min Woo Lee
No
Jacob Bridgeman
No
Sam Burns
No
Patrick Cantlay
No
Ricky Castillo
No
Bud Cauley
No
Wyndham Clark
No
Eric Cole
No
Corey Conners
No
Matt McCarty
No
Rory McIlroy
No
Maverick McNealy
No
Keith Mitchell
No
Collin Morikawa
No
Alexander Noren
No
JT Poston
No
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is cancelled, postponed after August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 2 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is cancelled, postponed after August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 2 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Scottie Scheffler's commanding position as the 99.5% implied probability favorite to lead after two rounds at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship stems from his dominant early performance at TPC Southwind, where he sits at -11 through 36 holes after strong opening rounds that include a 61. The world No. 1 enters the FedEx Cup Playoffs with a massive points lead and has shown elite ball-striking and putting consistency in recent starts, creating a wide gap over the field. Many contenders sit several shots back, limiting realistic paths to overtake him by the end of round two. Late surges from players like Sungjae Im or Nico Echavarria remain possible in theory, yet Scheffler's form and current margin make significant leaderboard shifts unlikely absent an unusually low round from the pack or a rare collapse from the leader.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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