The recent Vatican decree excommunicating SSPX bishops, priests, and formal adherents following their unauthorized July 2026 consecrations in Écône has set a high-profile precedent under Pope Leo XIV, yet the market remains closely balanced near even odds on whether any further public cases will occur before December 31. Ongoing tensions with traditionalist factions, appeals against the SSPX ruling, and potential new disputes over doctrine or authority create uncertainty about additional latae sententiae penalties or formal declarations. Traders weigh the rarity of such public actions against the risk of escalating schisms or other canonical violations surfacing in the remaining months, with any high-visibility defiance or reconciliation failure likely to shift the implied probability noticeably in either direction.