**Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s mayor since 2025, has repeatedly advocated for a two-percentage-point city income-tax surcharge on earnings above $1 million to address projected budget shortfalls.** The proposal, sometimes framed as a flat 2% levy, cannot take effect without explicit authorization from the state legislature and the governor because New York City lacks independent taxing power for this measure. Governor Kathy Hochul has consistently opposed the surcharge, and state lawmakers have instead advanced alternative revenue tools such as a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes. With the 2026 legislative session largely concluded and no enacted authorization as of mid-August 2026, traders assign only a 3.1% chance of passage before 2027. The narrow remaining window, entrenched institutional opposition, and substitution of other fiscal measures underpin the near-certain market consensus. Late-session budget negotiations or an unexpected shift in gubernatorial position remain the only plausible paths that could still alter the outcome before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$65,174 Vol.
$65,174 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$65,174 Vol.
$65,174 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s mayor since 2025, has repeatedly advocated for a two-percentage-point city income-tax surcharge on earnings above $1 million to address projected budget shortfalls.** The proposal, sometimes framed as a flat 2% levy, cannot take effect without explicit authorization from the state legislature and the governor because New York City lacks independent taxing power for this measure. Governor Kathy Hochul has consistently opposed the surcharge, and state lawmakers have instead advanced alternative revenue tools such as a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes. With the 2026 legislative session largely concluded and no enacted authorization as of mid-August 2026, traders assign only a 3.1% chance of passage before 2027. The narrow remaining window, entrenched institutional opposition, and substitution of other fiscal measures underpin the near-certain market consensus. Late-session budget negotiations or an unexpected shift in gubernatorial position remain the only plausible paths that could still alter the outcome before year-end.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ET
Volume
$65,174End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s mayor since 2025, has repeatedly advocated for a two-percentage-point city income-tax surcharge on earnings above $1 million to address projected budget shortfalls.** The proposal, sometimes framed as a flat 2% levy, cannot take effect without explicit authorization from the state legislature and the governor because New York City lacks independent taxing power for this measure. Governor Kathy Hochul has consistently opposed the surcharge, and state lawmakers have instead advanced alternative revenue tools such as a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes. With the 2026 legislative session largely concluded and no enacted authorization as of mid-August 2026, traders assign only a 3.1% chance of passage before 2027. The narrow remaining window, entrenched institutional opposition, and substitution of other fiscal measures underpin the near-certain market consensus. Late-session budget negotiations or an unexpected shift in gubernatorial position remain the only plausible paths that could still alter the outcome before year-end.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$65,174End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s mayor since 2025, has repeatedly advocated for a two-percentage-point city income-tax surcharge on earnings above $1 million to address projected budget shortfalls.** The proposal, sometimes framed as a flat 2% levy, cannot take effect without explicit authorization from the state legislature and the governor because New York City lacks independent taxing power for this measure. Governor Kathy Hochul has consistently opposed the surcharge, and state lawmakers have instead advanced alternative revenue tools such as a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes. With the 2026 legislative session largely concluded and no enacted authorization as of mid-August 2026, traders assign only a 3.1% chance of passage before 2027. The narrow remaining window, entrenched institutional opposition, and substitution of other fiscal measures underpin the near-certain market consensus. Late-session budget negotiations or an unexpected shift in gubernatorial position remain the only plausible paths that could still alter the outcome before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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