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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Justin Gaethje 83.7%

Mauricio Ruffy 6.7%

Ilia Topuria 5.8%

Charles Oliveira 5.1%

Polymarket

$666,972 Vol.

Justin Gaethje 83.7%

Mauricio Ruffy 6.7%

Ilia Topuria 5.8%

Charles Oliveira 5.1%

Polymarket

$666,972 Vol.

Ilia Topuria

$18,927 Vol.

6%

Arman Tsarukyan

$8,888 Vol.

3%

Charles Oliveira

$8,408 Vol.

5%

Max Holloway

$16,512 Vol.

1%

Justin Gaethje

$22,076 Vol.

84%

Paddy Pimblett

$526,194 Vol.

4%

Dan Hooker

$2,174 Vol.

<1%

Mateusz Gamrot

$1,993 Vol.

<1%

Benoît Saint Denis

$53,763 Vol.

1%

Rafael Fiziev

$2,086 Vol.

<1%

Renato Moicano

$2,429 Vol.

<1%

Mauricio Ruffy

$3,521 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Justin Gaethje holds the undisputed UFC Lightweight Championship after capturing the interim belt against Paddy Pimblett in January 2026 and then dethroning Ilia Topuria via fourth-round corner stoppage in their June unification bout at UFC Freedom 250. At 37, the veteran’s experience, durability, and finishing power against a previously unbeaten Topuria have shaped trader consensus around his strong likelihood of retaining the title through year-end. Limited remaining 2026 events, Gaethje’s stated intent to defend again, and the absence of imminent high-stakes challengers reinforce this positioning. Lower-priced names such as Topuria, Charles Oliveira, Arman Tsarukyan, and Mauricio Ruffy reflect realistic but narrower paths via potential rematches, strong recent form, or division momentum shifts before December.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$666,972
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Justin Gaethje holds the undisputed UFC Lightweight Championship after capturing the interim belt against Paddy Pimblett in January 2026 and then dethroning Ilia Topuria via fourth-round corner stoppage in their June unification bout at UFC Freedom 250. At 37, the veteran’s experience, durability, and finishing power against a previously unbeaten Topuria have shaped trader consensus around his strong likelihood of retaining the title through year-end. Limited remaining 2026 events, Gaethje’s stated intent to defend again, and the absence of imminent high-stakes challengers reinforce this positioning. Lower-priced names such as Topuria, Charles Oliveira, Arman Tsarukyan, and Mauricio Ruffy reflect realistic but narrower paths via potential rematches, strong recent form, or division momentum shifts before December.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$666,972
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Justin Gaethje" at 84%, followed by "Mauricio Ruffy" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $667K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Justin Gaethje" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mauricio Ruffy" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.