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Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·Mma

Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Tom Aspinall 51%

Ciryl Gane 37%

Josh Hokit 1.7%

Serghei Spivac <1%

Polymarket

$336,777 Vol.

Tom Aspinall 51%

Ciryl Gane 37%

Josh Hokit 1.7%

Serghei Spivac <1%

Polymarket

$336,777 Vol.

Tom Aspinall

$7,941 Vol.

51%

Ciryl Gane

$6,606 Vol.

36%

Josh Hokit

$579 Vol.

2%

Serghei Spivac

$549 Vol.

1%

Alexander Volkov

$27,391 Vol.

<1%

Tyrell Fortune

$370 Vol.

<1%

Jailton Almeida

$503 Vol.

<1%

Rizvan Kuniev

$411 Vol.

<1%

Curtis Blaydes

$66,703 Vol.

<1%

Derrick Lewis

$9,583 Vol.

<1%

Marcin Tybura

$166,795 Vol.

<1%

Sergei Pavlovich

$555 Vol.

<1%

Waldo Cortes Acosta

$48,207 Vol.

<1%

Ante Delija

$584 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Tom Aspinall holds the undisputed UFC heavyweight title and sits as the consensus favorite for year-end 2026, reflecting his strong recent form before the October 2025 eye-poke no-contest against Ciryl Gane and his confirmed medical clearance to return. Traders price in the planned Aspinall-Gane unification bout at UFC Paris in September as the pivotal near-term event, with Aspinall’s defensive wrestling, knockout power, and divisional experience providing the edge in the matchup. Gane’s 38% implied probability stems from his interim title win via second-round TKO of Alex Pereira in June 2026, plus his technical striking and prior competitive showing against Aspinall. Lower-ranked contenders such as Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes trail significantly, as the division’s immediate title picture centers on the top two while injury recovery timelines and fight scheduling limit near-term opportunities for others.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$336,777
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Tom Aspinall holds the undisputed UFC heavyweight title and sits as the consensus favorite for year-end 2026, reflecting his strong recent form before the October 2025 eye-poke no-contest against Ciryl Gane and his confirmed medical clearance to return. Traders price in the planned Aspinall-Gane unification bout at UFC Paris in September as the pivotal near-term event, with Aspinall’s defensive wrestling, knockout power, and divisional experience providing the edge in the matchup. Gane’s 38% implied probability stems from his interim title win via second-round TKO of Alex Pereira in June 2026, plus his technical striking and prior competitive showing against Aspinall. Lower-ranked contenders such as Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes trail significantly, as the division’s immediate title picture centers on the top two while injury recovery timelines and fight scheduling limit near-term opportunities for others.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$336,777
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Aspinall" at 51%, followed by "Ciryl Gane" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $336.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Tom Aspinall" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ciryl Gane" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.