Tom Aspinall holds the undisputed UFC heavyweight title after promotion in 2025, yet his extended injury absence following the no-contest against Ciryl Gane at UFC 321 has created uncertainty heading into late 2026. Gane captured the interim belt with a recent TKO of Alex Pereira and remains highly active while lobbying for a unification bout, potentially in Paris. Traders price Aspinall as the narrow favorite at 51.5% implied probability due to his championship pedigree and prior dominance, while Gane’s 34% reflects strong recent form and stylistic advantages in a potential rematch. Lower-ranked contenders such as Alexander Volkov and emerging names like Josh Hokit trail significantly, as the division’s immediate path funnels through the Aspinall-Gane dynamic and any resolution of the champion’s health timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTom Aspinall 52%
Ciryl Gane 42%
Josh Hokit 1.0%
Serghei Spivac <1%
$336,710 Vol.
$336,710 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
52%
Ciryl Gane
34%
Josh Hokit
1%
Serghei Spivac
<1%
Alexander Volkov
<1%
Tyrell Fortune
<1%
Jailton Almeida
<1%
Rizvan Kuniev
<1%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Derrick Lewis
<1%
Marcin Tybura
<1%
Sergei Pavlovich
<1%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
<1%
Ante Delija
<1%
Tom Aspinall 52%
Ciryl Gane 42%
Josh Hokit 1.0%
Serghei Spivac <1%
$336,710 Vol.
$336,710 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
52%
Ciryl Gane
34%
Josh Hokit
1%
Serghei Spivac
<1%
Alexander Volkov
<1%
Tyrell Fortune
<1%
Jailton Almeida
<1%
Rizvan Kuniev
<1%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Derrick Lewis
<1%
Marcin Tybura
<1%
Sergei Pavlovich
<1%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
<1%
Ante Delija
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Aspinall holds the undisputed UFC heavyweight title after promotion in 2025, yet his extended injury absence following the no-contest against Ciryl Gane at UFC 321 has created uncertainty heading into late 2026. Gane captured the interim belt with a recent TKO of Alex Pereira and remains highly active while lobbying for a unification bout, potentially in Paris. Traders price Aspinall as the narrow favorite at 51.5% implied probability due to his championship pedigree and prior dominance, while Gane’s 34% reflects strong recent form and stylistic advantages in a potential rematch. Lower-ranked contenders such as Alexander Volkov and emerging names like Josh Hokit trail significantly, as the division’s immediate path funnels through the Aspinall-Gane dynamic and any resolution of the champion’s health timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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