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icon for Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

icon for Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Andrew Oldham 13%

James Ho 13%

Aileen Cannon 12%

Steven Menashi 11.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Andrew Oldham 13%

James Ho 13%

Aileen Cannon 12%

Steven Menashi 11.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Andrew Oldham

$637 Vol.

13%

James Ho

$326 Vol.

13%

Aileen Cannon

$243 Vol.

12%

Steven Menashi

$103 Vol.

12%

Patrick Bumatay

$875 Vol.

11%

Neomi Rao

$108 Vol.

9%

Mike Lee

$125 Vol.

5%

John Sauer

$121 Vol.

5%

Gregory Katsas

$127 Vol.

4%

Ted Cruz

$160 Vol.

16%

Amul Thapar

$155 Vol.

33%

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The absence of an announced Supreme Court vacancy keeps probabilities fragmented across a wide field of conservative appellate judges and senators. Reported White House efforts to encourage retirements by Justices Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito have not produced confirmed departures, leaving timing and eligibility open. Market prices reflect this uncertainty, with Amul Thapar, Ted Cruz, Aileen Cannon, and others such as James Ho, Neomi Rao, and Patrick Bumatay clustered at low double digits. Senate confirmation dynamics, age considerations for long-term ideological impact, and the administration’s preference for proven Trump appointees further sustain the tight distribution. A retirement announcement, targeted endorsement, or committee signal could quickly consolidate support around one or two names.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,980
End Date
Jan 19, 2029
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The absence of an announced Supreme Court vacancy keeps probabilities fragmented across a wide field of conservative appellate judges and senators. Reported White House efforts to encourage retirements by Justices Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito have not produced confirmed departures, leaving timing and eligibility open. Market prices reflect this uncertainty, with Amul Thapar, Ted Cruz, Aileen Cannon, and others such as James Ho, Neomi Rao, and Patrick Bumatay clustered at low double digits. Senate confirmation dynamics, age considerations for long-term ideological impact, and the administration’s preference for proven Trump appointees further sustain the tight distribution. A retirement announcement, targeted endorsement, or committee signal could quickly consolidate support around one or two names.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,980
End Date
Jan 19, 2029
Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Amul Thapar" at 33%, followed by "Ted Cruz" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" is "Amul Thapar" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ted Cruz" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.