New Zealand’s next government will be decided in the November 7, 2026 general election under the MMP system, which requires coalitions or support agreements to reach a parliamentary majority. The incumbent National-led coalition with ACT and New Zealand First faces a tight contest, with recent polls showing National and Labour nearly level around 29-31 percent while the Opportunity Party has surged past the 5 percent threshold in multiple surveys, positioning it as a potential kingmaker. Other parties including the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, and Te Pāti Māori continue to shape bloc arithmetic. Leadership stability within National, voter priorities on cost of living, and the final weeks of campaigning remain the main variables that could shift coalition pathways before results are known.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
NEW
Nov 7, 2026
Green Party
55%
Labour Party
51%
ACT New Zealand
45%
Te Pāti Māori
40%
National Party
45%
New Zealand First Party
38%
$1,158 Vol.
Green Party
$48 Vol.
55%
Labour Party
$475 Vol.
51%
ACT New Zealand
$8 Vol.
45%
Te Pāti Māori
$50 Vol.
40%
National Party
$572 Vol.
45%
New Zealand First Party
$7 Vol.
38%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.New Zealand’s next government will be decided in the November 7, 2026 general election under the MMP system, which requires coalitions or support agreements to reach a parliamentary majority. The incumbent National-led coalition with ACT and New Zealand First faces a tight contest, with recent polls showing National and Labour nearly level around 29-31 percent while the Opportunity Party has surged past the 5 percent threshold in multiple surveys, positioning it as a potential kingmaker. Other parties including the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, and Te Pāti Māori continue to shape bloc arithmetic. Leadership stability within National, voter priorities on cost of living, and the final weeks of campaigning remain the main variables that could shift coalition pathways before results are known.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$1,158End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.New Zealand’s next government will be decided in the November 7, 2026 general election under the MMP system, which requires coalitions or support agreements to reach a parliamentary majority. The incumbent National-led coalition with ACT and New Zealand First faces a tight contest, with recent polls showing National and Labour nearly level around 29-31 percent while the Opportunity Party has surged past the 5 percent threshold in multiple surveys, positioning it as a potential kingmaker. Other parties including the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, and Te Pāti Māori continue to shape bloc arithmetic. Leadership stability within National, voter priorities on cost of living, and the final weeks of campaigning remain the main variables that could shift coalition pathways before results are known.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Volume
$1,158End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...New Zealand’s next government will be decided in the November 7, 2026 general election under the MMP system, which requires coalitions or support agreements to reach a parliamentary majority. The incumbent National-led coalition with ACT and New Zealand First faces a tight contest, with recent polls showing National and Labour nearly level around 29-31 percent while the Opportunity Party has surged past the 5 percent threshold in multiple surveys, positioning it as a potential kingmaker. Other parties including the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, and Te Pāti Māori continue to shape bloc arithmetic. Leadership stability within National, voter priorities on cost of living, and the final weeks of campaigning remain the main variables that could shift coalition pathways before results are known.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
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Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
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Frequently Asked Questions