Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce sales have tracked a steady 25-26% growth trajectory in recent quarters, anchored by nearly 50% expansion in store-fulfilled delivery, advertising revenue gains, and marketplace momentum. This pattern, paired with Walmart+ membership penetration and improving omnichannel economics, underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability for 25-29% growth in the quarter ending July 31. Broader retail sales trends and the absence of major consumer spending shocks reinforce the consensus, while the modest 14.5% odds on sub-25% outcomes reflect residual uncertainty around discretionary categories. Earnings scheduled for August 20 will provide the resolution catalyst, with traders viewing sustained mid-20% expansion as the base case absent unexpected macro shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25%-29% 84%
29%-33% 21.0%
<25% 15%
33%-37% 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
<25%
15%
25%-29%
84%
29%-33%
14%
33%-37%
1%
37%+
1%
25%-29% 84%
29%-33% 21.0%
<25% 15%
33%-37% 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
<25%
$4,250 Vol.
15%
25%-29%
$4,182 Vol.
84%
29%-33%
$413 Vol.
14%
33%-37%
$315 Vol.
1%
37%+
$577 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Walmart's Q2 US eCommerce sales growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce sales have tracked a steady 25-26% growth trajectory in recent quarters, anchored by nearly 50% expansion in store-fulfilled delivery, advertising revenue gains, and marketplace momentum. This pattern, paired with Walmart+ membership penetration and improving omnichannel economics, underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability for 25-29% growth in the quarter ending July 31. Broader retail sales trends and the absence of major consumer spending shocks reinforce the consensus, while the modest 14.5% odds on sub-25% outcomes reflect residual uncertainty around discretionary categories. Earnings scheduled for August 20 will provide the resolution catalyst, with traders viewing sustained mid-20% expansion as the base case absent unexpected macro shifts.
This market will resolve according to Walmart's Q2 US eCommerce sales growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$9,737End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Walmart's Q2 US eCommerce sales growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce sales have tracked a steady 25-26% growth trajectory in recent quarters, anchored by nearly 50% expansion in store-fulfilled delivery, advertising revenue gains, and marketplace momentum. This pattern, paired with Walmart+ membership penetration and improving omnichannel economics, underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability for 25-29% growth in the quarter ending July 31. Broader retail sales trends and the absence of major consumer spending shocks reinforce the consensus, while the modest 14.5% odds on sub-25% outcomes reflect residual uncertainty around discretionary categories. Earnings scheduled for August 20 will provide the resolution catalyst, with traders viewing sustained mid-20% expansion as the base case absent unexpected macro shifts.
This market will resolve according to Walmart's Q2 US eCommerce sales growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Volume
$9,737End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce sales have tracked a steady 25-26% growth trajectory in recent quarters, anchored by nearly 50% expansion in store-fulfilled delivery, advertising revenue gains, and marketplace momentum. This pattern, paired with Walmart+ membership penetration and improving omnichannel economics, underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability for 25-29% growth in the quarter ending July 31. Broader retail sales trends and the absence of major consumer spending shocks reinforce the consensus, while the modest 14.5% odds on sub-25% outcomes reflect residual uncertainty around discretionary categories. Earnings scheduled for August 20 will provide the resolution catalyst, with traders viewing sustained mid-20% expansion as the base case absent unexpected macro shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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