Ursula von der Leyen’s confirmed second mandate as European Commission President, secured by European Parliament election in July 2024 and running through the 2029 vote, underpins trader consensus that she will remain in office through 2026. Official Commission records show her actively advancing priorities on defense partnerships, economic competitiveness, and EU foreign policy as recently as July 2026, with no parliamentary no-confidence motions, major coalition fractures, or resignation signals emerging in the past year. The implied 95 percent probability reflects this institutional stability and absence of acute political pressure. Still, developments such as a sharp reversal in European Parliament support, an unforeseen leadership crisis, or health-related withdrawal could shift the outlook before year-end.