US military forces captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 operation in Caracas, leading Venezuela’s high court to install Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim head of state with military backing. Rodríguez has consolidated power amid US pressure for reforms and transition talks, while Maduro faces US charges and remains outside the country. June earthquakes near Caracas exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and prompted renewed US-backed negotiations involving opposition figures, though major opposition leaders have largely stepped back from direct involvement. Traders appear to price continuity within the existing institutional framework or potential restoration of Maduro’s formal status by year-end, reflected in the wide gap over Rodríguez and minimal implied probability for opposition or other outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 82.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.5%
No Head of State <1%
$95,468,331 Vol.
$95,468,331 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
3%
No Head of State
1%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 82.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.5%
No Head of State <1%
$95,468,331 Vol.
$95,468,331 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,744,753 Vol.
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,760,508 Vol.
10%
María Corina Machado
$1,443,161 Vol.
3%
No Head of State
$1,511,873 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$1,203,495 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,086,216 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$798,948 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,145,119 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,953,527 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,618,768 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,102,917 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,384,774 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,164,500 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,798,434 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,113,079 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,638,258 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
US military forces captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 operation in Caracas, leading Venezuela’s high court to install Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim head of state with military backing. Rodríguez has consolidated power amid US pressure for reforms and transition talks, while Maduro faces US charges and remains outside the country. June earthquakes near Caracas exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and prompted renewed US-backed negotiations involving opposition figures, though major opposition leaders have largely stepped back from direct involvement. Traders appear to price continuity within the existing institutional framework or potential restoration of Maduro’s formal status by year-end, reflected in the wide gap over Rodríguez and minimal implied probability for opposition or other outcomes.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$95,468,331End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
US military forces captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 operation in Caracas, leading Venezuela’s high court to install Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim head of state with military backing. Rodríguez has consolidated power amid US pressure for reforms and transition talks, while Maduro faces US charges and remains outside the country. June earthquakes near Caracas exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and prompted renewed US-backed negotiations involving opposition figures, though major opposition leaders have largely stepped back from direct involvement. Traders appear to price continuity within the existing institutional framework or potential restoration of Maduro’s formal status by year-end, reflected in the wide gap over Rodríguez and minimal implied probability for opposition or other outcomes.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$95,468,331End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...US military forces captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 operation in Caracas, leading Venezuela’s high court to install Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim head of state with military backing. Rodríguez has consolidated power amid US pressure for reforms and transition talks, while Maduro faces US charges and remains outside the country. June earthquakes near Caracas exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and prompted renewed US-backed negotiations involving opposition figures, though major opposition leaders have largely stepped back from direct involvement. Traders appear to price continuity within the existing institutional framework or potential restoration of Maduro’s formal status by year-end, reflected in the wide gap over Rodríguez and minimal implied probability for opposition or other outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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