Cleveland Cavaliers hold a dominant 96.9% implied probability in the James Harden free agency market due to his midseason 2025-26 trade from the Clippers and immediate positive impact alongside Donovan Mitchell, including a run to the Eastern Conference Finals. Harden declined his $42 million player option to pursue a new multi-year deal, with both sides showing patience amid roster flexibility efforts and no competing suitors emerging in reporting. Trader consensus reflects Harden's fit in Cleveland's system, strong personal chemistry with Mitchell, and the absence of viable alternatives at other destinations. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected rival offer altering cap dynamics or unforeseen contract impasse, though current developments point to swift re-signing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
NBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
Cleveland Cavaliers 96.9%
Golden State Warriors 2.6%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
Memphis Grizzlies <1%
$1,295,311 Vol.
$1,295,311 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
97%
Golden State Warriors
3%
Atlanta Hawks
1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Toronto Raptors
<1%
Cleveland Cavaliers 96.9%
Golden State Warriors 2.6%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
Memphis Grizzlies <1%
$1,295,311 Vol.
$1,295,311 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
97%
Golden State Warriors
3%
Atlanta Hawks
1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Toronto Raptors
<1%
If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Cleveland Cavaliers hold a dominant 96.9% implied probability in the James Harden free agency market due to his midseason 2025-26 trade from the Clippers and immediate positive impact alongside Donovan Mitchell, including a run to the Eastern Conference Finals. Harden declined his $42 million player option to pursue a new multi-year deal, with both sides showing patience amid roster flexibility efforts and no competing suitors emerging in reporting. Trader consensus reflects Harden's fit in Cleveland's system, strong personal chemistry with Mitchell, and the absence of viable alternatives at other destinations. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected rival offer altering cap dynamics or unforeseen contract impasse, though current developments point to swift re-signing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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