Microsoft shares have traded near $498–$502 through mid-week in the period ending September 25, 2026, after closing at $501.61 on September 21 and $498.00 on September 22 amid broader tech volatility and selective AI infrastructure rotation. Trader positioning in the $490–$500 and $500–$510 buckets reflects this tight range, supported by sustained Azure momentum from the July fiscal fourth-quarter results—where cloud revenue rose 27% and Azure grew 43%—alongside recent analyst upgrades raising targets to $570–$575. With next earnings scheduled for October 28 and no major data releases imminent, implied probabilities remain sensitive to daily price swings, macroeconomic sentiment, and any incremental commentary on capital expenditure pacing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$490-$500 33%
$500-$510 31%
$480-$490 14%
$510-$520 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
<$450
10%
$450-$460
10%
$460-$470
10%
$470-$480
8%
$480-$490
14%
$490-$500
33%
$500-$510
31%
$510-$520
13%
$520-$530
7%
$530-$540
10%
>$540
10%
$490-$500 33%
$500-$510 31%
$480-$490 14%
$510-$520 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
<$450
$5 Vol.
10%
$450-$460
$5 Vol.
10%
$460-$470
$5 Vol.
10%
$470-$480
$0 Vol.
8%
$480-$490
$0 Vol.
14%
$490-$500
$0 Vol.
33%
$500-$510
$0 Vol.
31%
$510-$520
$0 Vol.
13%
$520-$530
$0 Vol.
7%
$530-$540
$5 Vol.
10%
>$540
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft shares have traded near $498–$502 through mid-week in the period ending September 25, 2026, after closing at $501.61 on September 21 and $498.00 on September 22 amid broader tech volatility and selective AI infrastructure rotation. Trader positioning in the $490–$500 and $500–$510 buckets reflects this tight range, supported by sustained Azure momentum from the July fiscal fourth-quarter results—where cloud revenue rose 27% and Azure grew 43%—alongside recent analyst upgrades raising targets to $570–$575. With next earnings scheduled for October 28 and no major data releases imminent, implied probabilities remain sensitive to daily price swings, macroeconomic sentiment, and any incremental commentary on capital expenditure pacing.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft shares have traded near $498–$502 through mid-week in the period ending September 25, 2026, after closing at $501.61 on September 21 and $498.00 on September 22 amid broader tech volatility and selective AI infrastructure rotation. Trader positioning in the $490–$500 and $500–$510 buckets reflects this tight range, supported by sustained Azure momentum from the July fiscal fourth-quarter results—where cloud revenue rose 27% and Azure grew 43%—alongside recent analyst upgrades raising targets to $570–$575. With next earnings scheduled for October 28 and no major data releases imminent, implied probabilities remain sensitive to daily price swings, macroeconomic sentiment, and any incremental commentary on capital expenditure pacing.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Microsoft shares have traded near $498–$502 through mid-week in the period ending September 25, 2026, after closing at $501.61 on September 21 and $498.00 on September 22 amid broader tech volatility and selective AI infrastructure rotation. Trader positioning in the $490–$500 and $500–$510 buckets reflects this tight range, supported by sustained Azure momentum from the July fiscal fourth-quarter results—where cloud revenue rose 27% and Azure grew 43%—alongside recent analyst upgrades raising targets to $570–$575. With next earnings scheduled for October 28 and no major data releases imminent, implied probabilities remain sensitive to daily price swings, macroeconomic sentiment, and any incremental commentary on capital expenditure pacing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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