Minnesota's consistent Democratic lean at the federal level, including no Republican Senate victory since 2002 and an open seat created by retiring incumbent Tina Smith, underpins trader consensus favoring Peggy Flanagan. Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 59 percent of the vote against Rep. Angie Craig, benefiting from party endorsement and positioning as the progressive standard-bearer in a race shaped by immigration enforcement debates. Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster who won the Republican primary with 52 percent, trails in early generic ballot polling showing a Democratic edge. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, aligning with current market pricing. Late-cycle factors such as shifts in national economic conditions, differential voter turnout, or campaign developments could still narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$45,281 Vol.
$45,281 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
91%
Michele Tafoya (R)
10%
$45,281 Vol.
$45,281 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
$29,440 Vol.
91%
Michele Tafoya (R)
$15,841 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's consistent Democratic lean at the federal level, including no Republican Senate victory since 2002 and an open seat created by retiring incumbent Tina Smith, underpins trader consensus favoring Peggy Flanagan. Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 59 percent of the vote against Rep. Angie Craig, benefiting from party endorsement and positioning as the progressive standard-bearer in a race shaped by immigration enforcement debates. Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster who won the Republican primary with 52 percent, trails in early generic ballot polling showing a Democratic edge. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, aligning with current market pricing. Late-cycle factors such as shifts in national economic conditions, differential voter turnout, or campaign developments could still narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$45,281End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's consistent Democratic lean at the federal level, including no Republican Senate victory since 2002 and an open seat created by retiring incumbent Tina Smith, underpins trader consensus favoring Peggy Flanagan. Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 59 percent of the vote against Rep. Angie Craig, benefiting from party endorsement and positioning as the progressive standard-bearer in a race shaped by immigration enforcement debates. Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster who won the Republican primary with 52 percent, trails in early generic ballot polling showing a Democratic edge. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, aligning with current market pricing. Late-cycle factors such as shifts in national economic conditions, differential voter turnout, or campaign developments could still narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$45,281End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's consistent Democratic lean at the federal level, including no Republican Senate victory since 2002 and an open seat created by retiring incumbent Tina Smith, underpins trader consensus favoring Peggy Flanagan. Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary with roughly 59 percent of the vote against Rep. Angie Craig, benefiting from party endorsement and positioning as the progressive standard-bearer in a race shaped by immigration enforcement debates. Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster who won the Republican primary with 52 percent, trails in early generic ballot polling showing a Democratic edge. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, aligning with current market pricing. Late-cycle factors such as shifts in national economic conditions, differential voter turnout, or campaign developments could still narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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