**Temporary Jones Act waivers issued amid 2026 energy disruptions have not altered the statute's core U.S.-build, ownership, flag, and crew requirements.** The Trump administration granted a broad waiver starting March 17, 2026, later extended through mid-August and narrowed to case-by-case reviews, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move energy commodities and fertilizer in response to Iran-related supply issues. These actions rely on national-defense authority under 46 U.S.C. § 501 and remain explicitly time-limited without statutory change. Maritime industry groups and congressional allies have actively opposed converting waivers into permanent reform, citing impacts on domestic shipbuilding and employment. No repeal legislation has advanced, and entrenched procedural hurdles plus lobbying pressure make comprehensive removal by December 31 improbable. Traders assign 92.5% probability to “No” because only enacted law or court invalidation would trigger market resolution to “Yes,” and neither has materialized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
8% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Temporary Jones Act waivers issued amid 2026 energy disruptions have not altered the statute's core U.S.-build, ownership, flag, and crew requirements.** The Trump administration granted a broad waiver starting March 17, 2026, later extended through mid-August and narrowed to case-by-case reviews, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move energy commodities and fertilizer in response to Iran-related supply issues. These actions rely on national-defense authority under 46 U.S.C. § 501 and remain explicitly time-limited without statutory change.
Maritime industry groups and congressional allies have actively opposed converting waivers into permanent reform, citing impacts on domestic shipbuilding and employment. No repeal legislation has advanced, and entrenched procedural hurdles plus lobbying pressure make comprehensive removal by December 31 improbable. Traders assign 92.5% probability to “No” because only enacted law or court invalidation would trigger market resolution to “Yes,” and neither has materialized.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$1,067End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Temporary Jones Act waivers issued amid 2026 energy disruptions have not altered the statute's core U.S.-build, ownership, flag, and crew requirements.** The Trump administration granted a broad waiver starting March 17, 2026, later extended through mid-August and narrowed to case-by-case reviews, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move energy commodities and fertilizer in response to Iran-related supply issues. These actions rely on national-defense authority under 46 U.S.C. § 501 and remain explicitly time-limited without statutory change.
Maritime industry groups and congressional allies have actively opposed converting waivers into permanent reform, citing impacts on domestic shipbuilding and employment. No repeal legislation has advanced, and entrenched procedural hurdles plus lobbying pressure make comprehensive removal by December 31 improbable. Traders assign 92.5% probability to “No” because only enacted law or court invalidation would trigger market resolution to “Yes,” and neither has materialized.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,067End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Temporary Jones Act waivers issued amid 2026 energy disruptions have not altered the statute's core U.S.-build, ownership, flag, and crew requirements.** The Trump administration granted a broad waiver starting March 17, 2026, later extended through mid-August and narrowed to case-by-case reviews, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move energy commodities and fertilizer in response to Iran-related supply issues. These actions rely on national-defense authority under 46 U.S.C. § 501 and remain explicitly time-limited without statutory change. Maritime industry groups and congressional allies have actively opposed converting waivers into permanent reform, citing impacts on domestic shipbuilding and employment. No repeal legislation has advanced, and entrenched procedural hurdles plus lobbying pressure make comprehensive removal by December 31 improbable. Traders assign 92.5% probability to “No” because only enacted law or court invalidation would trigger market resolution to “Yes,” and neither has materialized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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