Skip to main content
icon for Iran leadership change by...?
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

icon for Iran leadership change by...?
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

$23,477,143 Vol.

Jun 30, 2027
Polymarket

$23,477,143 Vol.

Polymarket

August 15

$60,914 Vol.

<1%

August 22

$31,848 Vol.

1%

August 31

$1,148,792 Vol.

2%

September 30

$438,584 Vol.

6%

October 31

$8,752 Vol.

10%

November 30

$9,572 Vol.

13%

December 31

$3,995,446 Vol.

18%

June 30, 2027

$236,858 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme-leader transition since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. The move consolidated clerical and IRGC influence under a younger hard-line successor amid active conflict, while an interim council handled immediate powers. Recent weeks have featured internal reshuffles, battlefield adaptations signaling preparation for extended confrontation, and official efforts to counter speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei’s health and visibility. These events shape trader assessments of further leadership stability or additional shifts before any market resolution date, against the backdrop of sanctions pressure, regional military posture, and institutional continuity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,477,143
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme-leader transition since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. The move consolidated clerical and IRGC influence under a younger hard-line successor amid active conflict, while an interim council handled immediate powers. Recent weeks have featured internal reshuffles, battlefield adaptations signaling preparation for extended confrontation, and official efforts to counter speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei’s health and visibility. These events shape trader assessments of further leadership stability or additional shifts before any market resolution date, against the backdrop of sanctions pressure, regional military posture, and institutional continuity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,477,143
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

25%
icon for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

82%
icon for Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leadership change by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2027" at 26%, followed by "December 31" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leadership change by...?" has generated $23.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leadership change by...?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leadership change by...?" is "June 30, 2027" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leadership change by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.