Idaho's reliably Republican electorate and Jim Risch's strong incumbency position drive the market's heavy Republican tilt. Risch secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 67 percent of the vote against limited challengers. The Democratic nominee later withdrew, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the main general-election opponent. Recent polls show Risch leading by wide margins consistent with the state's voting history in Senate contests. A Democratic or independent victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or candidate appeal in this solidly red state, with few scheduled events before November 3, 2026, likely to alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$28,675 Vol.
$28,675 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
5%
$28,675 Vol.
$28,675 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$14,658 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$14,016 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's reliably Republican electorate and Jim Risch's strong incumbency position drive the market's heavy Republican tilt. Risch secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 67 percent of the vote against limited challengers. The Democratic nominee later withdrew, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the main general-election opponent. Recent polls show Risch leading by wide margins consistent with the state's voting history in Senate contests. A Democratic or independent victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or candidate appeal in this solidly red state, with few scheduled events before November 3, 2026, likely to alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$28,675End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's reliably Republican electorate and Jim Risch's strong incumbency position drive the market's heavy Republican tilt. Risch secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 67 percent of the vote against limited challengers. The Democratic nominee later withdrew, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the main general-election opponent. Recent polls show Risch leading by wide margins consistent with the state's voting history in Senate contests. A Democratic or independent victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or candidate appeal in this solidly red state, with few scheduled events before November 3, 2026, likely to alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$28,675End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho's reliably Republican electorate and Jim Risch's strong incumbency position drive the market's heavy Republican tilt. Risch secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 67 percent of the vote against limited challengers. The Democratic nominee later withdrew, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the main general-election opponent. Recent polls show Risch leading by wide margins consistent with the state's voting history in Senate contests. A Democratic or independent victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or candidate appeal in this solidly red state, with few scheduled events before November 3, 2026, likely to alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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