Persistent above-normal U.S. temperatures following July's record national average of 76.9°F have kept traders focused on a moderate tally of all-time station highs in August 2026, with early-month heat domes delivering dozens of daily and all-time marks mainly in the West on August 1. Many long-standing benchmarks from the 1930s or earlier remain resilient without a sustained, widespread surge midway through the month. This uncertainty—over whether lingering high-pressure patterns will intensify or a cooldown will cap new records in the low double digits—has produced the tight spread across the 0-20, 21-60, and 61-100 bins. Further heat waves in key regions or rapid cooling could quickly separate the leading outcomes by shifting the count of stations exceeding historic thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
0-20 41%
151+ 33%
101-150 32%
61-100 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
42%
21-60
24%
61-100
30%
101-150
32%
151+
33%
0-20 41%
151+ 33%
101-150 32%
61-100 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
$54 Vol.
42%
21-60
$0 Vol.
24%
61-100
$0 Vol.
30%
101-150
$0 Vol.
32%
151+
$0 Vol.
33%
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Persistent above-normal U.S. temperatures following July's record national average of 76.9°F have kept traders focused on a moderate tally of all-time station highs in August 2026, with early-month heat domes delivering dozens of daily and all-time marks mainly in the West on August 1. Many long-standing benchmarks from the 1930s or earlier remain resilient without a sustained, widespread surge midway through the month. This uncertainty—over whether lingering high-pressure patterns will intensify or a cooldown will cap new records in the low double digits—has produced the tight spread across the 0-20, 21-60, and 61-100 bins. Further heat waves in key regions or rapid cooling could quickly separate the leading outcomes by shifting the count of stations exceeding historic thresholds.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$54End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Persistent above-normal U.S. temperatures following July's record national average of 76.9°F have kept traders focused on a moderate tally of all-time station highs in August 2026, with early-month heat domes delivering dozens of daily and all-time marks mainly in the West on August 1. Many long-standing benchmarks from the 1930s or earlier remain resilient without a sustained, widespread surge midway through the month. This uncertainty—over whether lingering high-pressure patterns will intensify or a cooldown will cap new records in the low double digits—has produced the tight spread across the 0-20, 21-60, and 61-100 bins. Further heat waves in key regions or rapid cooling could quickly separate the leading outcomes by shifting the count of stations exceeding historic thresholds.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Volume
$54End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent above-normal U.S. temperatures following July's record national average of 76.9°F have kept traders focused on a moderate tally of all-time station highs in August 2026, with early-month heat domes delivering dozens of daily and all-time marks mainly in the West on August 1. Many long-standing benchmarks from the 1930s or earlier remain resilient without a sustained, widespread surge midway through the month. This uncertainty—over whether lingering high-pressure patterns will intensify or a cooldown will cap new records in the low double digits—has produced the tight spread across the 0-20, 21-60, and 61-100 bins. Further heat waves in key regions or rapid cooling could quickly separate the leading outcomes by shifting the count of stations exceeding historic thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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