Recent forecast model runs from major agencies point to a daytime maximum of 22–23°C in Warsaw on August 17, driven by a shift to increased cloud cover, light drizzle potential, and moderating winds after an early-August heatwave that produced peaks near 30°C. This cooling pattern, with overcast skies limiting solar heating, underpins the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Minor differences in predicted precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and steering flow create the narrow spread between 22°C and 24°C bins, while historical August averages near 23–24°C provide context for the current consensus. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 17?
23°C 32%
22°C 25%
24°C 21%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
20°C or below
5%
21°C
6%
22°C
25%
23°C
32%
24°C
21%
25°C
10%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 32%
22°C 25%
24°C 21%
25°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
20°C or below
$1,142 Vol.
5%
21°C
$343 Vol.
6%
22°C
$1,273 Vol.
25%
23°C
$207 Vol.
32%
24°C
$151 Vol.
21%
25°C
$707 Vol.
10%
26°C
$41 Vol.
1%
27°C
$219 Vol.
1%
28°C
$656 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$206 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from major agencies point to a daytime maximum of 22–23°C in Warsaw on August 17, driven by a shift to increased cloud cover, light drizzle potential, and moderating winds after an early-August heatwave that produced peaks near 30°C. This cooling pattern, with overcast skies limiting solar heating, underpins the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Minor differences in predicted precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and steering flow create the narrow spread between 22°C and 24°C bins, while historical August averages near 23–24°C provide context for the current consensus. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$4,990End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from major agencies point to a daytime maximum of 22–23°C in Warsaw on August 17, driven by a shift to increased cloud cover, light drizzle potential, and moderating winds after an early-August heatwave that produced peaks near 30°C. This cooling pattern, with overcast skies limiting solar heating, underpins the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Minor differences in predicted precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and steering flow create the narrow spread between 22°C and 24°C bins, while historical August averages near 23–24°C provide context for the current consensus. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,990End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from major agencies point to a daytime maximum of 22–23°C in Warsaw on August 17, driven by a shift to increased cloud cover, light drizzle potential, and moderating winds after an early-August heatwave that produced peaks near 30°C. This cooling pattern, with overcast skies limiting solar heating, underpins the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Minor differences in predicted precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and steering flow create the narrow spread between 22°C and 24°C bins, while historical August averages near 23–24°C provide context for the current consensus. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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