Republican incumbent Ashley Moody holds a clear edge in Florida’s November 2026 special Senate election to complete Marco Rubio’s term. Recent July 2026 polls show her leading prospective Democratic nominees Angie Nixon by eight points and Alex Vindman by ten points in head-to-head general-election matchups. Florida’s consistent Republican tilt in statewide contests, Moody’s appointment as interim senator, and the party’s recent Senate performance in the state underpin trader pricing. The Democratic primary on August 18 will set the final challenger, yet current polling averages and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment have kept Republican probabilities elevated. Late-cycle developments such as turnout patterns or unexpected national events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$68,313 Vol.
$68,313 Vol.
Republican
87%
Democrat
13%
$68,313 Vol.
$68,313 Vol.
Republican
$38,713 Vol.
87%
Democrat
$29,600 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican incumbent Ashley Moody holds a clear edge in Florida’s November 2026 special Senate election to complete Marco Rubio’s term. Recent July 2026 polls show her leading prospective Democratic nominees Angie Nixon by eight points and Alex Vindman by ten points in head-to-head general-election matchups. Florida’s consistent Republican tilt in statewide contests, Moody’s appointment as interim senator, and the party’s recent Senate performance in the state underpin trader pricing. The Democratic primary on August 18 will set the final challenger, yet current polling averages and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment have kept Republican probabilities elevated. Late-cycle developments such as turnout patterns or unexpected national events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$68,313Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican incumbent Ashley Moody holds a clear edge in Florida’s November 2026 special Senate election to complete Marco Rubio’s term. Recent July 2026 polls show her leading prospective Democratic nominees Angie Nixon by eight points and Alex Vindman by ten points in head-to-head general-election matchups. Florida’s consistent Republican tilt in statewide contests, Moody’s appointment as interim senator, and the party’s recent Senate performance in the state underpin trader pricing. The Democratic primary on August 18 will set the final challenger, yet current polling averages and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment have kept Republican probabilities elevated. Late-cycle developments such as turnout patterns or unexpected national events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$68,313Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Ashley Moody holds a clear edge in Florida’s November 2026 special Senate election to complete Marco Rubio’s term. Recent July 2026 polls show her leading prospective Democratic nominees Angie Nixon by eight points and Alex Vindman by ten points in head-to-head general-election matchups. Florida’s consistent Republican tilt in statewide contests, Moody’s appointment as interim senator, and the party’s recent Senate performance in the state underpin trader pricing. The Democratic primary on August 18 will set the final challenger, yet current polling averages and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment have kept Republican probabilities elevated. Late-cycle developments such as turnout patterns or unexpected national events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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