**The Irish Open first-round leader market at Trump Doonbeg reflects a wide-open links test where recent scoring form, tee-time positioning, and course familiarity drive trader consensus.** Jordan Smith and Padraig Harrington sit atop the probabilities at 37% each, buoyed by consistent early-round ball-striking and Harrington’s record 31st consecutive appearance on home soil. Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, and a deep group of contenders cluster near 16-17.5%, underscoring the field’s depth and the inherent volatility of one round on a windy, firm links layout. Recent hot streaks—such as strong opening scores from players like Oliver Lindell and Jacob Skov Olesen—plus afternoon tee times that may encounter shifting gusts, keep the race tightly bunched as the tournament opens Thursday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJordan Smith 74%
Padraig Harrington 74%
Jon Rahm 35%
Joaquin Niemann 34%
Jordan Smith
74%
Padraig Harrington
74%
Jon Rahm
35%
Joaquin Niemann
34%
Alex Fitzpatrick
33%
Matt Wallace
33%
Matthew Jordan
33%
Oliver Lindell
33%
Patrick Reed
33%
Brooks Koepka
33%
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
33%
Jacob Skov Olesen
33%
Angel Ayora
33%
Adrian Meronk
32%
Adrian Otaegui
32%
Alejandro Del Rey
32%
Liam Nolan
32%
Luke Donald
32%
Manuel Elvira
32%
Marcus Helligkilde
32%
Max Kennedy
32%
Mikael Lindberg
32%
Oihan Guillamoundeguy
32%
Angel Hidalgo
32%
Antoine Rozner
32%
Ashun Wu
32%
Ben Schmidt
32%
Brandon Robinson-Thompson
32%
Brandon Stone
32%
Daniel Bradbury
32%
Daniel Hillier
32%
David Micheluzzi
32%
Dylan Frittelli
32%
Dylan Naidoo
32%
Frederic Lacroix
32%
Gregorio De Leo
32%
Hennie Du Plessis
32%
Ignacio Elvira
32%
Jason Scrivener
32%
Jayden Schaper
32%
Jeff Winther
32%
Jeong-Weon Ko
32%
Joseph Dean
32%
Eddie Pepperell
32%
Erik van Rooyen
32%
Ewen Ferguson
32%
Francesco Laporta
32%
Frankie Capan
32%
Freddy Schott
32%
Grant Forrest
32%
Guido Migliozzi
32%
Haotong Li
32%
Ivan Cantero
32%
J. C. Ritchie
32%
Jack Senior
32%
Jacques Kruyswijk
32%
Jens Dantorp
32%
Joel Girrbach
32%
Johannes Veerman
32%
John Catlin
32%
Joost Luiten
32%
Jordan Gumberg
32%
Jorge Campillo
32%
Andy Sullivan
32%
Connor Syme
32%
Cormac Sharvin
32%
Daniel Rodrigues
32%
Danny Willett
32%
Darius van Driel
32%
Davis Bryant
32%
Francesco Molinari
32%
Mark Power
32%
Martin Couvra
32%
Matteo Manassero
32%
Maximilian Steinlechner
32%
Michael Hollick
32%
Nathan Kimsey
32%
Kazuma Kobori
32%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
32%
Kota Kaneko
32%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
32%
Laurie Canter
32%
Marcus Armitage
32%
Nicolai von Dellingshausen
32%
Niklas Lemke
32%
Niklas Noergaard
32%
Casey Jarvis
31%
Daniel Gavins
31%
Harry Hall
31%
Joakim Lagergren
31%
David Puig
31%
Marcel Schneider
30%
Pablo Larrazabal
30%
Bernd Wiesberger
30%
Calum Hill
30%
Paul Waring
30%
Nicolai Hoejgaard
29%
David Ravetto
28%
Julien Guerrier
28%
Jung-Hwan Lee
28%
Jordan Smith 74%
Padraig Harrington 74%
Jon Rahm 35%
Joaquin Niemann 34%
Jordan Smith
74%
Padraig Harrington
74%
Jon Rahm
35%
Joaquin Niemann
34%
Alex Fitzpatrick
33%
Matt Wallace
33%
Matthew Jordan
33%
Oliver Lindell
33%
Patrick Reed
33%
Brooks Koepka
33%
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
33%
Jacob Skov Olesen
33%
Angel Ayora
33%
Adrian Meronk
32%
Adrian Otaegui
32%
Alejandro Del Rey
32%
Liam Nolan
32%
Luke Donald
32%
Manuel Elvira
32%
Marcus Helligkilde
32%
Max Kennedy
32%
Mikael Lindberg
32%
Oihan Guillamoundeguy
32%
Angel Hidalgo
32%
Antoine Rozner
32%
Ashun Wu
32%
Ben Schmidt
32%
Brandon Robinson-Thompson
32%
Brandon Stone
32%
Daniel Bradbury
32%
Daniel Hillier
32%
David Micheluzzi
32%
Dylan Frittelli
32%
Dylan Naidoo
32%
Frederic Lacroix
32%
Gregorio De Leo
32%
Hennie Du Plessis
32%
Ignacio Elvira
32%
Jason Scrivener
32%
Jayden Schaper
32%
Jeff Winther
32%
Jeong-Weon Ko
32%
Joseph Dean
32%
Eddie Pepperell
32%
Erik van Rooyen
32%
Ewen Ferguson
32%
Francesco Laporta
32%
Frankie Capan
32%
Freddy Schott
32%
Grant Forrest
32%
Guido Migliozzi
32%
Haotong Li
32%
Ivan Cantero
32%
J. C. Ritchie
32%
Jack Senior
32%
Jacques Kruyswijk
32%
Jens Dantorp
32%
Joel Girrbach
32%
Johannes Veerman
32%
John Catlin
32%
Joost Luiten
32%
Jordan Gumberg
32%
Jorge Campillo
32%
Andy Sullivan
32%
Connor Syme
32%
Cormac Sharvin
32%
Daniel Rodrigues
32%
Danny Willett
32%
Darius van Driel
32%
Davis Bryant
32%
Francesco Molinari
32%
Mark Power
32%
Martin Couvra
32%
Matteo Manassero
32%
Maximilian Steinlechner
32%
Michael Hollick
32%
Nathan Kimsey
32%
Kazuma Kobori
32%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
32%
Kota Kaneko
32%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
32%
Laurie Canter
32%
Marcus Armitage
32%
Nicolai von Dellingshausen
32%
Niklas Lemke
32%
Niklas Noergaard
32%
Casey Jarvis
31%
Daniel Gavins
31%
Harry Hall
31%
Joakim Lagergren
31%
David Puig
31%
Marcel Schneider
30%
Pablo Larrazabal
30%
Bernd Wiesberger
30%
Calum Hill
30%
Paul Waring
30%
Nicolai Hoejgaard
29%
David Ravetto
28%
Julien Guerrier
28%
Jung-Hwan Lee
28%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score on the back 9 of the first round. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 Irish Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, or if an official Round 1 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.europeantour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score on the back 9 of the first round. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 Irish Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, or if an official Round 1 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.
Resolution Source
https://www.europeantour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**The Irish Open first-round leader market at Trump Doonbeg reflects a wide-open links test where recent scoring form, tee-time positioning, and course familiarity drive trader consensus.** Jordan Smith and Padraig Harrington sit atop the probabilities at 37% each, buoyed by consistent early-round ball-striking and Harrington’s record 31st consecutive appearance on home soil. Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, and a deep group of contenders cluster near 16-17.5%, underscoring the field’s depth and the inherent volatility of one round on a windy, firm links layout. Recent hot streaks—such as strong opening scores from players like Oliver Lindell and Jacob Skov Olesen—plus afternoon tee times that may encounter shifting gusts, keep the race tightly bunched as the tournament opens Thursday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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