Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at over 58% implied probability due to his record-breaking 2025-26 campaign, where he netted 61 goals across 51 appearances for Bayern Munich while securing the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and Supercup titles, followed by strong World Cup contributions that took England to the semifinals. Lamine Yamal sits second as Spain's standout during their World Cup triumph, backed by 24 goals and 17 assists for Barcelona in a La Liga-winning season that earned him domestic player honors. Rodri, Mbappé, and Kvaratskhelia trail further back amid comparatively modest club or international outputs in the same period, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in pricing underscoring Kane's edge in goal tallies and silverware while noting Yamal's youth and creativity as the primary alternative path to the award.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHarry Kane 58.3%
Lamine Yamal 16.6%
Rodri 8%
Kylian Mbappé 7.3%
$28,461,809 Vol.
$28,461,809 Vol.
Harry Kane
58%
Lamine Yamal
17%
Rodri
8%
Kylian Mbappé
7%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
4%
Lionel Messi
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
2%
Fabian Ruiz
2%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
Mohamed Salah
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Pedri
<1%
Cole Palmer
<1%
Julian Alvarez
<1%
Raphinha
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
<1%
Federico Valverde
<1%
Desire Doue
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
<1%
Rodrygo
<1%
Bukayo Saka
<1%
Harry Kane 58.3%
Lamine Yamal 16.6%
Rodri 8%
Kylian Mbappé 7.3%
$28,461,809 Vol.
$28,461,809 Vol.
Harry Kane
58%
Lamine Yamal
17%
Rodri
8%
Kylian Mbappé
7%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
4%
Lionel Messi
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
2%
Fabian Ruiz
2%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
Mohamed Salah
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Pedri
<1%
Cole Palmer
<1%
Julian Alvarez
<1%
Raphinha
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
<1%
Federico Valverde
<1%
Desire Doue
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
<1%
Rodrygo
<1%
Bukayo Saka
<1%
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at over 58% implied probability due to his record-breaking 2025-26 campaign, where he netted 61 goals across 51 appearances for Bayern Munich while securing the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and Supercup titles, followed by strong World Cup contributions that took England to the semifinals. Lamine Yamal sits second as Spain's standout during their World Cup triumph, backed by 24 goals and 17 assists for Barcelona in a La Liga-winning season that earned him domestic player honors. Rodri, Mbappé, and Kvaratskhelia trail further back amid comparatively modest club or international outputs in the same period, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in pricing underscoring Kane's edge in goal tallies and silverware while noting Yamal's youth and creativity as the primary alternative path to the award.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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