Alphabet’s current market capitalization hovers near $4.2 trillion, positioning the $4.00–4.50 trillion bin as the clear leader at 63% implied probability with just two weeks remaining until end-August resolution. Strong Q2 2026 results—revenue up 24% to $119.8 billion, Google Cloud surging 82% on AI infrastructure demand, and operating margins expanding to 34%—have anchored trader sentiment, reinforced by ongoing Gemini adoption and Search/YouTube stability. Recent equity raises and elevated AI capex introduce modest dilution risk and spending pressure, while the absence of major catalysts before month-end limits volatility. The secondary $4.50–5.00 trillion outcome at 31.5% reflects residual upside from sustained AI momentum, but near-term price action around current levels keeps the tighter range favored in skin-in-the-game markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4.00-$4.50T 63%
$4.50-$5.00T 32%
$3.50-$4.00T 7%
$6.00T+ 5.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<$3.50T
6%
$3.50-$4.00T
7%
$4.00-$4.50T
63%
$4.50-$5.00T
32%
$5.00-$5.50T
<1%
$5.50-$6.00T
1%
$6.00T+
5%
$4.00-$4.50T 63%
$4.50-$5.00T 32%
$3.50-$4.00T 7%
$6.00T+ 5.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<$3.50T
$315 Vol.
6%
$3.50-$4.00T
$376 Vol.
7%
$4.00-$4.50T
$3,421 Vol.
63%
$4.50-$5.00T
$4,000 Vol.
32%
$5.00-$5.50T
$148 Vol.
<1%
$5.50-$6.00T
$218 Vol.
1%
$6.00T+
$256 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Alphabet’s current market capitalization hovers near $4.2 trillion, positioning the $4.00–4.50 trillion bin as the clear leader at 63% implied probability with just two weeks remaining until end-August resolution. Strong Q2 2026 results—revenue up 24% to $119.8 billion, Google Cloud surging 82% on AI infrastructure demand, and operating margins expanding to 34%—have anchored trader sentiment, reinforced by ongoing Gemini adoption and Search/YouTube stability. Recent equity raises and elevated AI capex introduce modest dilution risk and spending pressure, while the absence of major catalysts before month-end limits volatility. The secondary $4.50–5.00 trillion outcome at 31.5% reflects residual upside from sustained AI momentum, but near-term price action around current levels keeps the tighter range favored in skin-in-the-game markets.
This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:26 PM ET
Volume
$8,735End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Alphabet’s current market capitalization hovers near $4.2 trillion, positioning the $4.00–4.50 trillion bin as the clear leader at 63% implied probability with just two weeks remaining until end-August resolution. Strong Q2 2026 results—revenue up 24% to $119.8 billion, Google Cloud surging 82% on AI infrastructure demand, and operating margins expanding to 34%—have anchored trader sentiment, reinforced by ongoing Gemini adoption and Search/YouTube stability. Recent equity raises and elevated AI capex introduce modest dilution risk and spending pressure, while the absence of major catalysts before month-end limits volatility. The secondary $4.50–5.00 trillion outcome at 31.5% reflects residual upside from sustained AI momentum, but near-term price action around current levels keeps the tighter range favored in skin-in-the-game markets.
This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$8,735End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alphabet’s current market capitalization hovers near $4.2 trillion, positioning the $4.00–4.50 trillion bin as the clear leader at 63% implied probability with just two weeks remaining until end-August resolution. Strong Q2 2026 results—revenue up 24% to $119.8 billion, Google Cloud surging 82% on AI infrastructure demand, and operating margins expanding to 34%—have anchored trader sentiment, reinforced by ongoing Gemini adoption and Search/YouTube stability. Recent equity raises and elevated AI capex introduce modest dilution risk and spending pressure, while the absence of major catalysts before month-end limits volatility. The secondary $4.50–5.00 trillion outcome at 31.5% reflects residual upside from sustained AI momentum, but near-term price action around current levels keeps the tighter range favored in skin-in-the-game markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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