Jannik Sinner’s commanding 2026 campaign, marked by a 44-3 record, six titles including Wimbledon, and multiple hard-court Masters crowns, underpins his 51.5% implied probability as the clear market leader for the US Open. Traders price in his superior consistency on hard courts and head-to-head edges against most contenders. Alexander Zverev sits at 13.3% after capturing the French Open, though his hard-court results lag behind Sinner’s. Carlos Alcaraz’s 12% reflects uncertainty around a right-wrist injury that sidelined him since April, tempering expectations for a strong return despite his prior Grand Slam pedigree. Novak Djokovic at 6.3% draws support from his experience and recent Australian Open final appearance, while younger players like Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz occupy lower probabilities amid questions over recent form and physical durability heading into the hard-court major.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJannik Sinner 52%
Alexander Zverev 13.2%
Carlos Alcaraz 12%
Novak Djokovic 6.3%
$6,383,252 Vol.
$6,383,252 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
52%
Alexander Zverev
13%
Carlos Alcaraz
12%
Novak Djokovic
6%
Ben Shelton
4%
Taylor Fritz
3%
Daniil Medvedev
2%
Jakub Mensik
2%
Arthur Fils
1%
Felix Auger Aliassime
1%
Joao Fonseca
1%
Alexander Bublik
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Lorenzo Musetti
1%
Flavio Cobolli
<1%
Frances Tiafoe
<1%
Jack Draper
<1%
Jiri Lehecka
<1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Holger Rune
<1%
Jannik Sinner 52%
Alexander Zverev 13.2%
Carlos Alcaraz 12%
Novak Djokovic 6.3%
$6,383,252 Vol.
$6,383,252 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
52%
Alexander Zverev
13%
Carlos Alcaraz
12%
Novak Djokovic
6%
Ben Shelton
4%
Taylor Fritz
3%
Daniil Medvedev
2%
Jakub Mensik
2%
Arthur Fils
1%
Felix Auger Aliassime
1%
Joao Fonseca
1%
Alexander Bublik
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Lorenzo Musetti
1%
Flavio Cobolli
<1%
Frances Tiafoe
<1%
Jack Draper
<1%
Jiri Lehecka
<1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Holger Rune
<1%
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jannik Sinner’s commanding 2026 campaign, marked by a 44-3 record, six titles including Wimbledon, and multiple hard-court Masters crowns, underpins his 51.5% implied probability as the clear market leader for the US Open. Traders price in his superior consistency on hard courts and head-to-head edges against most contenders. Alexander Zverev sits at 13.3% after capturing the French Open, though his hard-court results lag behind Sinner’s. Carlos Alcaraz’s 12% reflects uncertainty around a right-wrist injury that sidelined him since April, tempering expectations for a strong return despite his prior Grand Slam pedigree. Novak Djokovic at 6.3% draws support from his experience and recent Australian Open final appearance, while younger players like Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz occupy lower probabilities amid questions over recent form and physical durability heading into the hard-court major.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions