David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by roughly 3,200 votes in the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, a margin under 1% that technically met the threshold for a candidate-requested recount under state law. Hong conceded shortly after final results were reported, and no formal request has been filed with the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Wisconsin requires such petitions within a narrow post-canvass window, typically three business days after the last county board submits its statement, and the requesting campaign generally bears the cost unless the gap falls below 0.25%. With the August 31 deadline approaching and no indication of a reversal by Hong or any other candidate, traders assign a 98.4% probability that no recount order will issue. A late request or unforeseen legal challenge remains the only plausible path to altering the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
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NEW
Aug 31, 2026
2% chance
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Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by roughly 3,200 votes in the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, a margin under 1% that technically met the threshold for a candidate-requested recount under state law. Hong conceded shortly after final results were reported, and no formal request has been filed with the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Wisconsin requires such petitions within a narrow post-canvass window, typically three business days after the last county board submits its statement, and the requesting campaign generally bears the cost unless the gap falls below 0.25%. With the August 31 deadline approaching and no indication of a reversal by Hong or any other candidate, traders assign a 98.4% probability that no recount order will issue. A late request or unforeseen legal challenge remains the only plausible path to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$2,258End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by roughly 3,200 votes in the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, a margin under 1% that technically met the threshold for a candidate-requested recount under state law. Hong conceded shortly after final results were reported, and no formal request has been filed with the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Wisconsin requires such petitions within a narrow post-canvass window, typically three business days after the last county board submits its statement, and the requesting campaign generally bears the cost unless the gap falls below 0.25%. With the August 31 deadline approaching and no indication of a reversal by Hong or any other candidate, traders assign a 98.4% probability that no recount order will issue. A late request or unforeseen legal challenge remains the only plausible path to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,258End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by roughly 3,200 votes in the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, a margin under 1% that technically met the threshold for a candidate-requested recount under state law. Hong conceded shortly after final results were reported, and no formal request has been filed with the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Wisconsin requires such petitions within a narrow post-canvass window, typically three business days after the last county board submits its statement, and the requesting campaign generally bears the cost unless the gap falls below 0.25%. With the August 31 deadline approaching and no indication of a reversal by Hong or any other candidate, traders assign a 98.4% probability that no recount order will issue. A late request or unforeseen legal challenge remains the only plausible path to altering the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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