The closely contested market odds around 49% for a Democratic sweep of the core four 2026 Senate races—in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—reflect these states' status as toss-ups or leans on the electoral map. Key dynamics include Roy Cooper's polling lead in the North Carolina open seat, Jon Ossoff's reelection defense in Georgia, the open Michigan contest following Gary Peters's retirement, and Susan Collins's reelection bid in Maine, where narrow historical margins and candidate recruitment shape outcomes. Recent primary results, fundraising trends, and state-specific voter turnout patterns among key blocs sustain uncertainty about simultaneous Democratic victories. Late shifts in national political conditions or individual race developments could alter the implied probability before the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
49% chance
$19,613 Vol.
$19,613 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
49% chance
$19,613 Vol.
$19,613 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested market odds around 49% for a Democratic sweep of the core four 2026 Senate races—in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—reflect these states' status as toss-ups or leans on the electoral map. Key dynamics include Roy Cooper's polling lead in the North Carolina open seat, Jon Ossoff's reelection defense in Georgia, the open Michigan contest following Gary Peters's retirement, and Susan Collins's reelection bid in Maine, where narrow historical margins and candidate recruitment shape outcomes. Recent primary results, fundraising trends, and state-specific voter turnout patterns among key blocs sustain uncertainty about simultaneous Democratic victories. Late shifts in national political conditions or individual race developments could alter the implied probability before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$19,613End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested market odds around 49% for a Democratic sweep of the core four 2026 Senate races—in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—reflect these states' status as toss-ups or leans on the electoral map. Key dynamics include Roy Cooper's polling lead in the North Carolina open seat, Jon Ossoff's reelection defense in Georgia, the open Michigan contest following Gary Peters's retirement, and Susan Collins's reelection bid in Maine, where narrow historical margins and candidate recruitment shape outcomes. Recent primary results, fundraising trends, and state-specific voter turnout patterns among key blocs sustain uncertainty about simultaneous Democratic victories. Late shifts in national political conditions or individual race developments could alter the implied probability before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$19,613End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested market odds around 49% for a Democratic sweep of the core four 2026 Senate races—in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—reflect these states' status as toss-ups or leans on the electoral map. Key dynamics include Roy Cooper's polling lead in the North Carolina open seat, Jon Ossoff's reelection defense in Georgia, the open Michigan contest following Gary Peters's retirement, and Susan Collins's reelection bid in Maine, where narrow historical margins and candidate recruitment shape outcomes. Recent primary results, fundraising trends, and state-specific voter turnout patterns among key blocs sustain uncertainty about simultaneous Democratic victories. Late shifts in national political conditions or individual race developments could alter the implied probability before the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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