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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Islam Makhachev 67%

Ian Machado Garry 20.0%

Carlos Prates 5.6%

Michael Morales <1%

Polymarket

$627,619 Vol.

Islam Makhachev 67%

Ian Machado Garry 20.0%

Carlos Prates 5.6%

Michael Morales <1%

Polymarket

$627,619 Vol.

Islam Makhachev

$9,336 Vol.

67%

Ian Machado Garry

$5,959 Vol.

20%

Carlos Prates

$4,503 Vol.

6%

Michael Morales

$6,570 Vol.

1%

Shavkat Rakhmonov

$203,445 Vol.

<1%

Kamaru Usman

$367,158 Vol.

<1%

Gabriel Bonfim

$1,008 Vol.

<1%

Jack Della Maddalena

$2,242 Vol.

<1%

Belal Muhammad

$1,797 Vol.

<1%

Sean Brady

$2,058 Vol.

<1%

Leon Edwards

$1,728 Vol.

<1%

Joaquin Buckley

$21,814 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev holds the UFC welterweight title after capturing it via unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena in November 2025, extending his win streak and establishing him as the clear frontrunner to remain champion through the end of 2026. His wrestling base, sambo background, and experience as a former lightweight titleholder create significant barriers for challengers in a division featuring strong contenders. Ian Machado Garry sits as the primary threat, ranked near the top and scheduled for a title bout at UFC 330, yet faces long odds in that matchup. Other ranked options such as Carlos Prates and Michael Morales trail further behind, with recent form and divisional positioning limiting their implied probabilities in trader consensus. Makhachev's first defense and any subsequent activity before year-end will shape the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$627,619
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev holds the UFC welterweight title after capturing it via unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena in November 2025, extending his win streak and establishing him as the clear frontrunner to remain champion through the end of 2026. His wrestling base, sambo background, and experience as a former lightweight titleholder create significant barriers for challengers in a division featuring strong contenders. Ian Machado Garry sits as the primary threat, ranked near the top and scheduled for a title bout at UFC 330, yet faces long odds in that matchup. Other ranked options such as Carlos Prates and Michael Morales trail further behind, with recent form and divisional positioning limiting their implied probabilities in trader consensus. Makhachev's first defense and any subsequent activity before year-end will shape the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$627,619
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islam Makhachev" at 67%, followed by "Ian Machado Garry" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $627.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Islam Makhachev" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ian Machado Garry" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.