Recent U.S.-China trade negotiations and the scheduled September 24 White House summit between President Trump and President Xi represent the primary driver behind trader positioning on the December 31, 2026 tariff rate. Preparatory talks have focused on extending the current truce—set to expire in November—along with possible reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods to most-favored-nation levels. Average effective rates have settled near 20-36 percent after earlier Section 301 actions, Supreme Court rulings on emergency authorities, and phased adjustments under various statutes. The near-even split between the 25-35 percent and 5-15 percent brackets reflects uncertainty over whether bilateral deals, forced-labor or overcapacity probes, or new executive measures will produce further cuts or stabilization by year-end. Scheduled follow-on consultations and any announcements on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, or fentanyl precursors could shift probabilities in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25–35% 30%
5–15% 28%
<5% 19%
15–25% 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<5%
16%
5–15%
28%
15–25%
14%
25–35%
30%
35%+
13%
25–35% 30%
5–15% 28%
<5% 19%
15–25% 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<5%
$23 Vol.
16%
5–15%
$0 Vol.
28%
15–25%
$0 Vol.
14%
25–35%
$0 Vol.
30%
35%+
$145 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade negotiations and the scheduled September 24 White House summit between President Trump and President Xi represent the primary driver behind trader positioning on the December 31, 2026 tariff rate. Preparatory talks have focused on extending the current truce—set to expire in November—along with possible reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods to most-favored-nation levels. Average effective rates have settled near 20-36 percent after earlier Section 301 actions, Supreme Court rulings on emergency authorities, and phased adjustments under various statutes. The near-even split between the 25-35 percent and 5-15 percent brackets reflects uncertainty over whether bilateral deals, forced-labor or overcapacity probes, or new executive measures will produce further cuts or stabilization by year-end. Scheduled follow-on consultations and any announcements on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, or fentanyl precursors could shift probabilities in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$168End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade negotiations and the scheduled September 24 White House summit between President Trump and President Xi represent the primary driver behind trader positioning on the December 31, 2026 tariff rate. Preparatory talks have focused on extending the current truce—set to expire in November—along with possible reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods to most-favored-nation levels. Average effective rates have settled near 20-36 percent after earlier Section 301 actions, Supreme Court rulings on emergency authorities, and phased adjustments under various statutes. The near-even split between the 25-35 percent and 5-15 percent brackets reflects uncertainty over whether bilateral deals, forced-labor or overcapacity probes, or new executive measures will produce further cuts or stabilization by year-end. Scheduled follow-on consultations and any announcements on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, or fentanyl precursors could shift probabilities in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$168End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S.-China trade negotiations and the scheduled September 24 White House summit between President Trump and President Xi represent the primary driver behind trader positioning on the December 31, 2026 tariff rate. Preparatory talks have focused on extending the current truce—set to expire in November—along with possible reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods to most-favored-nation levels. Average effective rates have settled near 20-36 percent after earlier Section 301 actions, Supreme Court rulings on emergency authorities, and phased adjustments under various statutes. The near-even split between the 25-35 percent and 5-15 percent brackets reflects uncertainty over whether bilateral deals, forced-labor or overcapacity probes, or new executive measures will produce further cuts or stabilization by year-end. Scheduled follow-on consultations and any announcements on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, or fentanyl precursors could shift probabilities in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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