The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report moved the projected depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund to the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—largely due to reduced revenue from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s changes to taxation of benefits. At that point, incoming payroll taxes and other income would cover only about 78 percent of scheduled payments absent reforms, implying an automatic 22 percent cut. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034. With no major legislation enacted since the report, trader focus centers on whether Congress will raise payroll taxes, adjust benefits, or combine trust funds before reserves run low, as these steps directly determine whether insolvency arrives on the current timeline or later.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSocial Security Insolvent by...?
Social Security Insolvent by...?
NEW
Jan 1, 2029
December 31, 2027
10%
December 31, 2028
21%
$300 Vol.
December 31, 2027
$274 Vol.
10%
December 31, 2028
$26 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report moved the projected depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund to the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—largely due to reduced revenue from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s changes to taxation of benefits. At that point, incoming payroll taxes and other income would cover only about 78 percent of scheduled payments absent reforms, implying an automatic 22 percent cut. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034. With no major legislation enacted since the report, trader focus centers on whether Congress will raise payroll taxes, adjust benefits, or combine trust funds before reserves run low, as these steps directly determine whether insolvency arrives on the current timeline or later.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Volume
$300End Date
Jan 1, 2029Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report moved the projected depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund to the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—largely due to reduced revenue from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s changes to taxation of benefits. At that point, incoming payroll taxes and other income would cover only about 78 percent of scheduled payments absent reforms, implying an automatic 22 percent cut. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034. With no major legislation enacted since the report, trader focus centers on whether Congress will raise payroll taxes, adjust benefits, or combine trust funds before reserves run low, as these steps directly determine whether insolvency arrives on the current timeline or later.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$300End Date
Jan 1, 2029Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report moved the projected depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund to the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—largely due to reduced revenue from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s changes to taxation of benefits. At that point, incoming payroll taxes and other income would cover only about 78 percent of scheduled payments absent reforms, implying an automatic 22 percent cut. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034. With no major legislation enacted since the report, trader focus centers on whether Congress will raise payroll taxes, adjust benefits, or combine trust funds before reserves run low, as these steps directly determine whether insolvency arrives on the current timeline or later.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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