Federal legislation signed in late 2025 rewrites the hemp definition under the 2018 Farm Bill and imposes a 0.4 mg total THC limit per finished container effective November 12, 2026, far below the 5 mg dose common in current seltzers. This nationwide cap, enacted via a funding bill, would render most hemp-derived THC beverages noncompliant and is the dominant driver of trader views on post-deadline legality. Industry groups are actively lobbying Congress for carve-outs or delays before the rule takes hold, while state rules continue to vary and some retailers prepare for restricted sales. Any legislative adjustment or enforcement clarification in the coming months could shift implied probabilities on specific resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 13, 2026
November 13, 2026
22%
March 13, 2027
29%
$3,461 Vol.
November 13, 2026
$2,974 Vol.
22%
March 13, 2027
$487 Vol.
29%
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.Federal legislation signed in late 2025 rewrites the hemp definition under the 2018 Farm Bill and imposes a 0.4 mg total THC limit per finished container effective November 12, 2026, far below the 5 mg dose common in current seltzers. This nationwide cap, enacted via a funding bill, would render most hemp-derived THC beverages noncompliant and is the dominant driver of trader views on post-deadline legality. Industry groups are actively lobbying Congress for carve-outs or delays before the rule takes hold, while state rules continue to vary and some retailers prepare for restricted sales. Any legislative adjustment or enforcement clarification in the coming months could shift implied probabilities on specific resolution dates.
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 11:58 AM ET
Volume
$3,461End Date
Mar 13, 2027Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 11:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.Federal legislation signed in late 2025 rewrites the hemp definition under the 2018 Farm Bill and imposes a 0.4 mg total THC limit per finished container effective November 12, 2026, far below the 5 mg dose common in current seltzers. This nationwide cap, enacted via a funding bill, would render most hemp-derived THC beverages noncompliant and is the dominant driver of trader views on post-deadline legality. Industry groups are actively lobbying Congress for carve-outs or delays before the rule takes hold, while state rules continue to vary and some retailers prepare for restricted sales. Any legislative adjustment or enforcement clarification in the coming months could shift implied probabilities on specific resolution dates.
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$3,461End Date
Mar 13, 2027Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 11:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Federal legislation signed in late 2025 rewrites the hemp definition under the 2018 Farm Bill and imposes a 0.4 mg total THC limit per finished container effective November 12, 2026, far below the 5 mg dose common in current seltzers. This nationwide cap, enacted via a funding bill, would render most hemp-derived THC beverages noncompliant and is the dominant driver of trader views on post-deadline legality. Industry groups are actively lobbying Congress for carve-outs or delays before the rule takes hold, while state rules continue to vary and some retailers prepare for restricted sales. Any legislative adjustment or enforcement clarification in the coming months could shift implied probabilities on specific resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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