Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces during a January 3, 2026 military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face narco-terrorism and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, have pleaded not guilty, and did not seek bail ahead of a June 2027 trial date set in July proceedings. Venezuelan officials, including acting president Delcy Rodríguez, continue to demand his release, while defense counsel has raised objections to the underlying military action and asserted immunity claims. No diplomatic or legal developments since the July hearing have altered his detention status, though Maduro issued a statement from jail in early August regarding Venezuelan transition talks. Trader assessments reflect the extended pretrial timeline and limited near-term pathways to release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,687,688 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,687,688 Vol.
December 31
$292,239 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces during a January 3, 2026 military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face narco-terrorism and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, have pleaded not guilty, and did not seek bail ahead of a June 2027 trial date set in July proceedings. Venezuelan officials, including acting president Delcy Rodríguez, continue to demand his release, while defense counsel has raised objections to the underlying military action and asserted immunity claims. No diplomatic or legal developments since the July hearing have altered his detention status, though Maduro issued a statement from jail in early August regarding Venezuelan transition talks. Trader assessments reflect the extended pretrial timeline and limited near-term pathways to release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,687,688End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces during a January 3, 2026 military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face narco-terrorism and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, have pleaded not guilty, and did not seek bail ahead of a June 2027 trial date set in July proceedings. Venezuelan officials, including acting president Delcy Rodríguez, continue to demand his release, while defense counsel has raised objections to the underlying military action and asserted immunity claims. No diplomatic or legal developments since the July hearing have altered his detention status, though Maduro issued a statement from jail in early August regarding Venezuelan transition talks. Trader assessments reflect the extended pretrial timeline and limited near-term pathways to release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,687,688End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his capture by American forces during a January 3, 2026 military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face narco-terrorism and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, have pleaded not guilty, and did not seek bail ahead of a June 2027 trial date set in July proceedings. Venezuelan officials, including acting president Delcy Rodríguez, continue to demand his release, while defense counsel has raised objections to the underlying military action and asserted immunity claims. No diplomatic or legal developments since the July hearing have altered his detention status, though Maduro issued a statement from jail in early August regarding Venezuelan transition talks. Trader assessments reflect the extended pretrial timeline and limited near-term pathways to release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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