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Politics·Krakao

Kraków Mayoral Election Winner

icon for Kraków Mayoral Election Winner
Politics·Krakao

Kraków Mayoral Election Winner

Łukasz Gibała 69%

Monika Piątkowska 24%

Aleksandra Owca 5.2%

Rafał Komarewicz 3.8%

Polymarket

$16,181 Vol.

Łukasz Gibała 69%

Monika Piątkowska 24%

Aleksandra Owca 5.2%

Rafał Komarewicz 3.8%

Polymarket

$16,181 Vol.

icon for Łukasz Gibała

Łukasz Gibała

$9,149 Vol.

69%

icon for Monika Piątkowska

Monika Piątkowska

$1,103 Vol.

24%

icon for Aleksandra Owca

Aleksandra Owca

$502 Vol.

5%

icon for Rafał Komarewicz

Rafał Komarewicz

$359 Vol.

4%

icon for Michał Drewnicki

Michał Drewnicki

$241 Vol.

4%

icon for Łukasz Wantuch

Łukasz Wantuch

$341 Vol.

4%

icon for Jan Hoffman

Jan Hoffman

$298 Vol.

4%

icon for Grażyna Zofia Świat

Grażyna Zofia Świat

$878 Vol.

4%

icon for Sławomir Pietrzyk

Sławomir Pietrzyk

$336 Vol.

3%

icon for Daria Gosek-Popiołek

Daria Gosek-Popiołek

$251 Vol.

2%

icon for Rafał Sonik

Rafał Sonik

$345 Vol.

1%

icon for Marianna Schreiber

Marianna Schreiber

$408 Vol.

1%

icon for Marian Banaś

Marian Banaś

$496 Vol.

1%

icon for Marta Ratuszyńska

Marta Ratuszyńska

$339 Vol.

1%

icon for Bartosz Bocheńczak

Bartosz Bocheńczak

$329 Vol.

<1%

icon for Paweł Śliz

Paweł Śliz

$401 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michał Klimek

Michał Klimek

$405 Vol.

<1%

The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.Łukasz Gibała leads the Kraków mayoral by-election market at 69% implied probability due to his established local profile as an independent city councilor and founder of the Kraków for Residents committee. He narrowly lost the 2024 runoff to incumbent Aleksander Miszalski by roughly 5,400 votes after leading in the first round, giving him high name recognition ahead of the September 2026 special election triggered by Miszalski’s May 2026 recall referendum. Recent candidate registrations and polling trends show Gibała positioned ahead of a crowded field that includes Monika Piątkowska, Marianna Schreiber, Marian Banaś, and several lower-polling independents or party-backed contenders. Fragmented opposition support across multiple committees has concentrated trader bets on Gibała as the clearest path to a first-round or runoff victory, consistent with historical patterns in Polish local by-elections where prior runners-up often consolidate backing quickly.

The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Volume
$16,181
End Date
Sep 27, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.Łukasz Gibała leads the Kraków mayoral by-election market at 69% implied probability due to his established local profile as an independent city councilor and founder of the Kraków for Residents committee. He narrowly lost the 2024 runoff to incumbent Aleksander Miszalski by roughly 5,400 votes after leading in the first round, giving him high name recognition ahead of the September 2026 special election triggered by Miszalski’s May 2026 recall referendum. Recent candidate registrations and polling trends show Gibała positioned ahead of a crowded field that includes Monika Piątkowska, Marianna Schreiber, Marian Banaś, and several lower-polling independents or party-backed contenders. Fragmented opposition support across multiple committees has concentrated trader bets on Gibała as the clearest path to a first-round or runoff victory, consistent with historical patterns in Polish local by-elections where prior runners-up often consolidate backing quickly.

The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Volume
$16,181
End Date
Sep 27, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kraków Mayoral Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Łukasz Gibała" at 69%, followed by "Monika Piątkowska" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kraków Mayoral Election Winner" has generated $16.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kraków Mayoral Election Winner," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kraków Mayoral Election Winner" is "Łukasz Gibała" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Monika Piątkowska" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kraków Mayoral Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.