Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to 2.88% as of mid-August 2026, up roughly 130 basis points over the past year, as the Bank of Japan normalizes policy. The BOJ lifted its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June—the highest since 1995—before holding steady in July amid warnings that core inflation could exceed its 2% target later this year. Elevated producer prices near 7%, persistent energy cost pressures linked to Middle East tensions, and resilient domestic demand continue to support higher yields. With the next policy meeting in September and fiscal measures potentially adding to growth and borrowing costs, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors yields finishing 2026 above 2.8%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJapan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
3.0%+ 46.2%
2.8-3.0% 30.9%
2.6-2.8% 8%
2.0-2.2% 3.1%
$21,011 Vol.
$21,011 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<2.0%
2%
2.0-2.2%
3%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
3%
2.6-2.8%
8%
2.8-3.0%
31%
3.0%+
46%
3.0%+ 46.2%
2.8-3.0% 30.9%
2.6-2.8% 8%
2.0-2.2% 3.1%
$21,011 Vol.
$21,011 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<2.0%
$901 Vol.
2%
2.0-2.2%
$1,124 Vol.
3%
2.2-2.4%
$794 Vol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,012 Vol.
3%
2.6-2.8%
$2,074 Vol.
8%
2.8-3.0%
$8,007 Vol.
31%
3.0%+
$6,099 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to 2.88% as of mid-August 2026, up roughly 130 basis points over the past year, as the Bank of Japan normalizes policy. The BOJ lifted its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June—the highest since 1995—before holding steady in July amid warnings that core inflation could exceed its 2% target later this year. Elevated producer prices near 7%, persistent energy cost pressures linked to Middle East tensions, and resilient domestic demand continue to support higher yields. With the next policy meeting in September and fiscal measures potentially adding to growth and borrowing costs, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors yields finishing 2026 above 2.8%.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$21,011End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to 2.88% as of mid-August 2026, up roughly 130 basis points over the past year, as the Bank of Japan normalizes policy. The BOJ lifted its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June—the highest since 1995—before holding steady in July amid warnings that core inflation could exceed its 2% target later this year. Elevated producer prices near 7%, persistent energy cost pressures linked to Middle East tensions, and resilient domestic demand continue to support higher yields. With the next policy meeting in September and fiscal measures potentially adding to growth and borrowing costs, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors yields finishing 2026 above 2.8%.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$21,011End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to 2.88% as of mid-August 2026, up roughly 130 basis points over the past year, as the Bank of Japan normalizes policy. The BOJ lifted its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June—the highest since 1995—before holding steady in July amid warnings that core inflation could exceed its 2% target later this year. Elevated producer prices near 7%, persistent energy cost pressures linked to Middle East tensions, and resilient domestic demand continue to support higher yields. With the next policy meeting in September and fiscal measures potentially adding to growth and borrowing costs, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors yields finishing 2026 above 2.8%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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