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icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elections·French Election

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elections·French Election

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

$59,329 Vol.

Apr 23, 2027
Polymarket

$59,329 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$1,119 Vol.

61%

Jordan Bardella

$4,883 Vol.

9%

Michel Barnier

$228 Vol.

14%

Valérie Pécresse

$259 Vol.

10%

Élisabeth Borne

$320 Vol.

14%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$587 Vol.

4%

Jean Castex

$348 Vol.

8%

Gérald Darmanin

$289 Vol.

17%

Sébastien Lecornu

$1,524 Vol.

18%

François Bayrou

$553 Vol.

11%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$247 Vol.

58%

Carole Delga

$165 Vol.

13%

Olivier Faure

$2,007 Vol.

21%

François Hollande

$403 Vol.

59%

Raphaël Glucksmann

$7,293 Vol.

76%

Manuel Bompard

$2,888 Vol.

8%

Mathilde Panot

$17,061 Vol.

7%

Dominique de Villepin

$207 Vol.

51%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Multiple declared candidacies and party endorsements have shaped expectations for further 2026 announcements ahead of the April 2027 vote. Marine Le Pen confirmed her bid in July 2026 after an appeals court reduced her ineligibility period, while Gabriel Attal declared in May and Bruno Retailleau secured The Republicans nomination in April. Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have also entered or signaled runs, with polls showing National Rally candidates leading first-round intentions. The crowded field of roughly 30 potentials reflects fragmented opposition to the incumbent centrist bloc and term limits barring Emmanuel Macron. Upcoming party congresses, polling shifts, and any additional court rulings on eligibility could prompt more declarations before year-end.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$59,329
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Multiple declared candidacies and party endorsements have shaped expectations for further 2026 announcements ahead of the April 2027 vote. Marine Le Pen confirmed her bid in July 2026 after an appeals court reduced her ineligibility period, while Gabriel Attal declared in May and Bruno Retailleau secured The Republicans nomination in April. Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have also entered or signaled runs, with polls showing National Rally candidates leading first-round intentions. The crowded field of roughly 30 potentials reflects fragmented opposition to the incumbent centrist bloc and term limits barring Emmanuel Macron. Upcoming party congresses, polling shifts, and any additional court rulings on eligibility could prompt more declarations before year-end.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$59,329
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gabriel Attal" at 100%, followed by "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" has generated $59.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is "Gabriel Attal" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.