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World·BOJ

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

icon for Bank of Japan Decision in September?
World·BOJ

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

Sep 18

Oct 30

Sep 18

Oct 30

25 bps increase 84%

No change 16%

50+ bps increase 1.4%

50+ bps decrease <1%

Polymarket

$284,620 Vol.

25 bps increase 84%

No change 16%

50+ bps increase 1.4%

50+ bps decrease <1%

Polymarket

$284,620 Vol.

50+ bps decrease

$17,802 Vol.

<1%

25 bps decrease

$16,878 Vol.

<1%

No change

$105,736 Vol.

16%

25 bps increase

$90,684 Vol.

84%

50+ bps increase

$53,521 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Bank of Japan communications have driven the 84% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the September 17-18 meeting, with sources indicating policymakers are prepared to hike as soon as then while considering an accelerated tightening pace beyond the prior twice-annual rhythm. Underlying CPI has approached the 2% target amid persistent upside price risks, a weaker yen, and resilient growth supported by AI-related demand, prompting the board to flag potential faster normalization after the June lift to 1.0%. The July meeting summary reinforced this hawkish tilt, elevating five-year yields, while the 15% no-change odds reflect caution around fiscal-year 2026 inflation forecasts trimmed to 2.5%. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus positions the 25 bp outcome as the base case ahead of the decision.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$284,620
End Date
Sep 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Bank of Japan communications have driven the 84% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the September 17-18 meeting, with sources indicating policymakers are prepared to hike as soon as then while considering an accelerated tightening pace beyond the prior twice-annual rhythm. Underlying CPI has approached the 2% target amid persistent upside price risks, a weaker yen, and resilient growth supported by AI-related demand, prompting the board to flag potential faster normalization after the June lift to 1.0%. The July meeting summary reinforced this hawkish tilt, elevating five-year yields, while the 15% no-change odds reflect caution around fiscal-year 2026 inflation forecasts trimmed to 2.5%. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus positions the 25 bp outcome as the base case ahead of the decision.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$284,620
End Date
Sep 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of Japan Decision in September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25 bps increase" at 84%, followed by "No change" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bank of Japan Decision in September?" has generated $284.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bank of Japan Decision in September?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bank of Japan Decision in September?" is "25 bps increase" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No change" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bank of Japan Decision in September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.