Recent July 2026 Bank of Japan decision to hold the policy rate at 1% after the prior hike to that level, combined with hawkish signals on core inflation likely exceeding the 2% target from September onward, underpins the 73.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting. Yen weakness and resilient growth have kept normalization expectations alive, supporting the 23% odds of a 25 basis point increase, yet the central bank's measured pace—one hike roughly every six months—limits aggressive repricing. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on gradual tightening amid stable labor conditions and accommodative financial settings, with the September meeting and incoming inflation data as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of the late-October decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 74%
25 bps increase 23%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$42,119 Vol.
$42,119 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 23%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$42,119 Vol.
$42,119 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,632 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,805 Vol.
<1%
No change
$22,981 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$11,191 Vol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$2,510 Vol.
2%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July 2026 Bank of Japan decision to hold the policy rate at 1% after the prior hike to that level, combined with hawkish signals on core inflation likely exceeding the 2% target from September onward, underpins the 73.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting. Yen weakness and resilient growth have kept normalization expectations alive, supporting the 23% odds of a 25 basis point increase, yet the central bank's measured pace—one hike roughly every six months—limits aggressive repricing. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on gradual tightening amid stable labor conditions and accommodative financial settings, with the September meeting and incoming inflation data as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of the late-October decision.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$42,119End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July 2026 Bank of Japan decision to hold the policy rate at 1% after the prior hike to that level, combined with hawkish signals on core inflation likely exceeding the 2% target from September onward, underpins the 73.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting. Yen weakness and resilient growth have kept normalization expectations alive, supporting the 23% odds of a 25 basis point increase, yet the central bank's measured pace—one hike roughly every six months—limits aggressive repricing. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on gradual tightening amid stable labor conditions and accommodative financial settings, with the September meeting and incoming inflation data as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of the late-October decision.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$42,119End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 Bank of Japan decision to hold the policy rate at 1% after the prior hike to that level, combined with hawkish signals on core inflation likely exceeding the 2% target from September onward, underpins the 73.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting. Yen weakness and resilient growth have kept normalization expectations alive, supporting the 23% odds of a 25 basis point increase, yet the central bank's measured pace—one hike roughly every six months—limits aggressive repricing. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on gradual tightening amid stable labor conditions and accommodative financial settings, with the September meeting and incoming inflation data as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment ahead of the late-October decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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